| Multi-regional CGE is used to study the flows of goods and factors among multiple economic agents within a country. Multi-regional CGE model has the essential characteristics of the general equilibrium model, but its economic agents are on the regional level and the model is embodied with interregional economic relationship. Based on the multi-regional theory, this thesis completed a CGE system and discussed some policy analysis which are under the integration of Beijing and Tianjin.A single region CGE model can not reflect the interregional flows of goods and factors for the regional differences in China which include the geographical conditions, the complex regional economic interactions and so on. Therefore, based on general equilibrium theory, this article divided China into three regions-Beijing, Tianjin and other regions, established a three-region interregional CGE model, estimated the model's parameters, worked out the three-regional interregional input-output table, and used the object-oriented programming language-C#, SQL Server 2008 to develop a MRCGE system to simulate some specific issues.Specifically, in the thesis, the constructed three-regional CGE model system and the compiled interregional input-output table both contain three regions:Beijing, Tianjin, other regions, and each region included 23 economic sectors. The model distinguished the central government between the local government, urban residents between rural residents, differentiated this area, outside area and abroad. Compared with the single-region CGE, the multi-regional CGE can better reflect the interregional interactions and the actual conditions of China.Using the self-developed MRCGE system, the article mainly studied the influence of the tax rates of residents, the coal price, the electricity-water-gas sector price and the price of real estate.Through scenarios simulation, we found that, if the tax rate of residents in Beijing and Tianjin was both reduced by 10%, the total consumption of residents would improve respectively, and the impact of urban residents would be greater than rural residents; what's more, Beijing, which with a higher level of urbanization than Tianjin, affected less than Tianjin. The results of increasing the personal income tax threshold are similar to the case that resident tax being reduced by 10%, while the value was relatively small. The 10% increase of coal price at home could promote the GDP growth of Beijing and Tianjin, and the growth rate of Beijing would be larger than Tianjin. Compared with the results of electricity-water-gas sector price increased by 10% in Beijing and Tianjin, we can observe that the residents'total consumption of Beijing was reduced while Tianjin's was increased, and the extent of influence in Tianjin was bigger. As a consequence, we can conclude that low-carbon advocated sector--the rising price of electricity-water-gas sector--has a positive impact on reducing consumption. In other words, it contributes to excite the relevant departments to take some energy-saving and emission-reducing measures. As for the rising of the house price, a bigger fluctuation in Tianjin appeared, and economic radiation effect on the surrounding of Beijing is greater than that in Tianjin. |
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