The Ring Bohai Area Based On The Interregional Input-output Table Analysis Of The Spillover Effect Of Economic Growth

The interregional input-output model can be used to quantify the economic impact of different regions and the effective methods of Economic Industrial Association.In China,the interregional input-output table has been studied but is less used among provinces and municipalities in small areas.As economic integration becomes more and more important,the effect of economic exchanges between provinces and provinces on economic growth can not be ignored.This paper uses the regional input output table of five provinces and cities in Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei,Shandong and Liaoning Bohai area in 2012.The traffic flow of five provinces and cities in 2012 was introduced as the reference index for the mutual trade volume of five provinces and cities,and the import and export items were dealt with accordingly.Finally,the total amount was adjusted by RAS method,and the interregional input-output table in the ring Bohai area was obtained.Among them,the Leontief-Strout gravity model is used to estimate the regional commodity flow volume,and the traffic volume distribution matrix of 2012 provincial section is used to estimate it.This paper first uses the existing input-output table to be adjusted as an inter regional input table,and then analyzes the economic growth effect and the influence of the leading industry through the multiplier effect,spillover effect and feedback effect that is decomposed.Compared with other methods,the analysis of spillover effect is more intuitive and more evidences than other methods.On the basis of the classic Miller-Round model,the five regional input-output model is established to calculate the spillover effect of the ring Bohai area to analyze the mutual influence of the Bohai region.Quantitative data show the specific degree of spillover effect in Bohai rim.The results show that the spillover effects of Bohai,Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei provinces are obvious,and the driving effect on the economic growth of the Bohai rim region is obvious.The total spillover effect of Beijing to Bohai rim is 30.2%,and the total external spillover effect of Tianjin is 21.3%.The total external spillover effect of Hebei on Bohai rim is 29%.The total spillover effect of Liaoning on Bohai rim is 8.3%.The total impact of Shandong on other provinces in the Bohai rim is 14.7%.The economic priority and rapid development of Beijing Tianjin Hebei has a significant driving effect on the growth of the total economic growth of Bohai,which is greater than that of Liaoning and Shandong.The external spillover effects of construction industry in five regions are very prominent.