Research On Sustainable Development Of Heavy Chemical Industry In China Based On The Perspective Of Circular Economy

China has entered a period of rapid development of heavy chemical industry, followed by energy shortage, environmental pollution, ecological destruction and other serious negative externalities. Therefore the future development of heavy chemical industry can't be ignored, because the continued rapid development condition of heavy chemical industry will likely last a long time.Based on circular economy, starting with the definition of heavy chemical industry's concept and an overview of related theory, the current development characteristics and main problems of heavy chemical industry in China are analyzed and summarized. On this basis, the evaluation index system of sustainable development in heavy chemical industry from the perspective of circular economy is scientifically constructed by a combined method of qualitative analysis and quantitative screening; then, this paper performs an empirical study and predicts the future trends of subsystem and integrated sustainable development levels and coordinated development levels of heavy chemical industry, using statistical methods, such as principal component analysis, gray prediction, and so on. Conclusions are as follows:(1) From 1996 to 2008, the integrated sustainable development level of heavy chemical industry in China generally showed a smoothly rising trend, however, along with the volatilities in the development course, especially there were greater volatilities of sustainable development level in the economic subsystem, that may be affected by national macro-control policy and two international financial crises in 1997 and 2007.(2) From 1996 to 2008, the integrated sustainable coordinated development level of heavy chemical industry generally showed an upward trend, however, compared with 2007, the sustainable coordinated development levels of economic and scientific and technological (S&T for short) subsystems, economic and resource and environmental (R&E for short) subsystems both showed declining trends, this needs to attract the attention of government departments.(3) From 2009 to 2015, in accordance with the present mode and speed of development, the sustainable development levels of the subsystems and the overall in heavy chemical industry show steadily improving trends. However, the sustainable development levels and rates of the economic subsystem and R&E subsystem will both be in a relatively lower state. This indicates that heavy chemical industry of our country will still face the dual task of economic development and R&E protection. Meanwhile, the sustainable coordinated development level of economic and R&E subsystems, and the integrated sustainable coordinated development level of heavy chemical industry both show a trend, which will first increase and then decrease, while the sustainable coordinated development level of economic and S&T subsystems will remain in a declining level. It highlights that how to deal with the coordinated development relationships between economic development and S&T progress, economic development and R&E protection, are the important issues, which urgently need to be resolved for heavy chemical industry in the next seven years.Finally, in accordance with the empirical results, three recommendations are made to improve the levels of sustainable development and coordinated development for heavy chemical industry. That is to continue to strengthen the leading role of heavy chemical industry in economy guided by the industrial policy adjustments, to improve the independent innovation capability of enterprises supported by S&T progress, and to vigorously develop circular economy and generally promote cleaner production, in order to achieve "win-win" situation between economic development and R&E protection.