Research On Demand Forecasting For An Elevator Accessory Production Enterprise

With the rapid development of domestic economy,the market environment of traditional manufacturing industry is changing rapidly.Particularly,elevator accessories manufacturers are in the upstream of the industrial chain which is one of the most affected industries.This kind of enterprise has a variety of products,short and urgent delivery time,which pose a serious challenge to the organization of its production.In this environment,the elevator accessories manufacturers need to make a scientific and accurate prediction of the changing market demand,so that they can quickly respond to changes in the market environment,and orderly organize every production link of enterprises.This is of great significance for reducing the cost of enterprises and improving their core competitiveness.This thesis takes an elevator accessories manufacturer as the object,and studies its demand forecasting method.The main research work includes:Firstly,we conduct a survey of the elevator accessories enterprise to obtain the basic data and information of its product types,market distribution and demand quantity.The thesis analyzes the characteristics of its product demand to sum up its current forecasting methods,and then it comes to a deeper analysis of the main problems existing in the current forecasting methods.Secondly,based on the above analysis,we have set up a product demand forecasting model,and the defect analysis and improvement are carried out.After that,the forecast cycle of each product is analyzed and determined.Then,based on the time series prediction method,the demand of the main products of the enterprise is predicted and analyzed,including the moving average method and the exponential smoothing.The prediction model suitable for enterprises is sought through fitting and comparison.Finally,the forecast results are calculated according to the improved demand forecasting method,and the effect and prediction accuracy are analyzed by means of testing.Finally,in order to better apply the above research to the actual business circumstances,we designs and develops a sales forecasting system.The system mainly consists of the functions of sales forecasting management and system management.Through system integration,the required business data can be obtained from the Enterprise Resource Planning(ERP)system,so that the sales forecast of various products can be accomplished quickly and conveniently.This study not only helps to provide a scientific and effective prediction method for the enterprises,improves the accuracy of the demand forecast,but also possesses certain reference value for other manufacturing enterprises with similar product features and demand forecasting models.