Guangdong Carbon Emissions Assessment, Prediction And Mitigation Strategy

Chinese government raised a carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP reduction target,which should be dropped from40%in2005to45%in2020.Then during China’s the12th Five-Year Plan our government put forward an explicit proposal to control greenhouse gas emissions and reduce per unit GDP carbon dioxide emissions by17%.As one of the Chinese economical and industrial Province, Guangdong Province has a increasingly prominent contradiction between environment and rapidly-developed economic. Therefore, the study of carbon emissions characteristics and influencing factors on carbon emissions in Guangdong Province, which can have a great significance for making a scientific and reasonable industrial layout,energy plan and keeping a sustainablely developed economic. Around guangdong province carbon assessment, prediction and mitigation strategies,the paper obtains the following aspects of innovational works:(1) Based on the IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas List In2006, The paper assesses the carbon emissions by the energy consumption in Guangdong Province from1980to2010. The results are as follows:The status of carbon emissions is growing sustaining.Also the paper find out that carbon emissions and GDP output are positively correlated.Lastly we get the conclusion that after2000the carbon intensity is in the state of convergence.(2) Using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method, the paper established the carbon emissions by energy consumption model.The results show that:Taking1980as a base period, we get an conclusion that the energy intensity effect is the main suppression factor on carbon emissions’ growth and per capita GDP is the main contributing factor on the growth of carbon emissions. Also we get that the size of the population has a weak role in promoting the growth of carbon emissions and the energy structure has a effect on carbon emissions,whose direction is not clear.(3) Based on STIRPAT extended model,the paper build a influencing factors on carbon emissions by energy consumption measuring model in Guangdong province. The results show that:According to the role of various factors, four factors including the size of the population, the rate of population urbanization, per capita GDP and the proportion of secondary industry have a positive role in carbon emissions. While the intensity of energy consumption and import dependency have an inhibitory effect on carbon emissions. According to the elastic coefficient of influencing factors,the size of the population, the proportion of secondary industry, urbanization rate, per capita GDP, carbon intensity, the proportion of exports to GDP and import share of GDP have different effect,from deep to s)ight,on carbon emissions.(4) Based on scenario analysis, the auther establishes a prediction model on carbon emissions by energy consumption in Guangdong Province.The results show that:in2015,2020,2030, primary carbon emissions by energy consumption were from388,442,000tons to438,778,000tons,470.51million tons to595,765,000tons and572,081,000tons to865,834,000tons respectively.(5)Under the guide thought of system engineering, the paper analysises of reduction potential on carbon emission in Guangdong Province. The results show that:Taking2020’s scenario as an example, when we reduce the size of the population, urbanization process, the proportion of secondary industry,1%per capita of the GDP respectively, we can reduce512.401million tons,513.941million tons,514.942million tons,517.93million tons of carbon dioxide emissions. According to this, the auther raises targeted tactics on emission reduction in terms of population, industrial structure, energy structure and energy policies and tools.