Discussion On Prediction Of Subsidized Housing Land-use Scale

Subsidized housing system is an important system for the improvement of people in China. The Government has always attached great importance to the Construction and development of subsidized housing system.After years of development, China formed a housing guarantee system including low-rent housing, economy applicable housing, public rental housing. The construction and development of subsidized housing need adequate and timely land supply, in order to promote the construction and development of promote subsidized housing, departments of all levels have issued several policy vary from land to finance to guarantee the land supply of subsidized housing. The overall plan of land utilization is an important Macro-control means of the government, The land scale and Land layout defined in it have the force of law. during the compilation of annual plan of land utilization,the government has to be in accordance with the land scale.So defining the land scale needed in the development of construction of subsidized housing in the compilation of the overall plan of land utilization can provide enough land for the construction of subsidized housing. In the process of the compilation of the overall plan of land utilization, research a rational approach to predict the land scale needed in the development of construction of subsidized housing makes sense. It can not only provide basis for the departments of all levels'decision-making, but also can provide timely and adequate land supply needed in the construction and development of subsidized housing. Based on low-rent housing, economy applicable housing, The paper adopts the methods that combine the theory and the practice, the qualitative analysis and the quantitative analysis, contributes a model to calculate the size of subsidized housing needed family and the land size of subsidized housing.The result of prediction show that:from 2009-2020 the ratio of guaranteed housing needed family will reduce by two stages:in 2009-2011 stage the ratio and size of guaranteed housing needed family will be in growth status,the guaranteed housing need large size land;in 2012-2020, the ratio and size of guaranteed housing needed family are less than the first stage,as the city family growing, the size of guaranteed housing needed family growth; In Land Use Planning of Shi Zhu(2009-2020year),the land size of guaranteed housing is 109hm2. In the end, the paper puts forward relevant suggestions relevant the land supply and land layout of subsidized housing.