Lewis Turning Point Analysis Based On Migrant Workers Perspective

The phenomena of the shortage of Migrant workers in China's labor market frequently happened in recent years, meanwhile migrant workers wages are also raising, so theorists and academia discussed labor supply situation, put forward different ideas about whether our country faces Lewis' turning point or not. This paper reform Lewis' population flow model conforming to our country actual, not only explains the phenomenon of the shortage, and also explains the migrant worker tide and difficult employment etc. The conclusion is that Lewis' turning point is far from arrival, the current should strive to achieve a permanent shift surplus labor force.This paper was divided into five parts:The first part is preface, mainly introduce research background, research significance, and the innovation points and insufficiencies; the second part is concepts, theories, and literature review; The third part is transformation of Lewis' model, this paper pointed out that migrant workers belong to the incompletely transferred surplus labor, and migrant workers maintain subsistence wage is along with the rising cost of living and rising, thus to Lewis' population flow model reformed. This new model also explained worker tide and shortage, and pointed out the migrant workers may return backflow and be urban unemployment, China's Labor supply is still enough, Lewis' turning point is still far from coming; The fourth part is estimation of surplus rural labor number, this paper will classified town unregistered unemployed and unstable employed as surplus labor, based on "infinite labor supply" concept. This estimation shows Chinese rural surplus labor amount is still very big, and on-site transfer ability is limited, transferred from one region of migrant workers cannot thoroughly metastases, so our country surplus labor is not less trend; The fifth part is research conclusion and countermeasures. Only truly realize the peasant workers' citizenization, we can say infinite labor supply is decreasing, it has realistic significance to talk about Lewis' turning point. For how to achieve a permanent shift of labor or said how to promote the agricultural laborer resident, this article put forward four policy suggestions from the system reform, labor market integration, human capital investment and surplus labor transfer in situ, etc.