Study On Labor Transfer And Estimation Of Agricultural Surplus Labor In Henan Province

The question in this paper is whether the rural surplus labor force has been diverted;in other words,is there a surplus labor force in rural areas where there is a shortage of migrant workers? This is a theoretical problem that simply relies on some observations,reports,or field studies that can not be answered,Need to rely on the economic theory of scientific estimates and analysis.We have combed the theory of agricultural surplus labor,such as Lewis' s dual economic model,neoclassical general equilibrium theory,Todaro model,Chenery-Syiquin international standard theory.On the basis of combing theory and judging the previous research results,this paper summarizes the estimation methods of six kinds of agricultural surplus labor force,including the neo-classical general equilibrium estimation method,Lewis estimation method,push-pull model method of Todaro's population migration,Chenery-Syiquin's International Standard Model Method,Agricultural Technology Needs Law(Factor Proportion).Weigh the advantages and disadvantages of the above-mentioned estimation method,we adopt the neoclassical general equilibrium estimation method.By establishing the Cobb-Douglas average production function model of agriculture in Henan Province,we can see how the farmers adjust the agricultural input and output under the mediation of the price mechanism by means of the technical relationship between the inputs and outputs of the production function.Agriculture is generally considered to be a perfectly competitive industry,and if the labor market is sufficiently mobile,farmers can choose freely between farming and migrant workers.Where the peasant tradeoff is not a classic neoclassical solution-the marginal labor productivity equals the equilibrium market wage,but the sum of the resources used for income in different industries.According to the estimated agricultural production function,and then calculate the marginal labor productivity.According to the Henan Province "Hundred counties and thousands of villages" carried out by the farmers survey,the sample data,migrant workers in the annual income of about 25870 yuan.As the market wage standard for migrant workers,into the marginal labor productivity calculation formula,you can calculate the actual amount of labor required labor and the number of surplus labor force.The results show that in 2014 the agricultural surplus labor force in Henan Province was 18.04 million.This paper also examines the situation of rural surplus labor from the perspective of rural labor transfer.In 2015,the total number of migrant workers in china reached 280 million,showing a total increase but slowdown;among them,the total number of migrant workers(170 million)more than the total number of local migrant workers(110 million),both growth rate is declining.Henan Province,the total transfer of rural labor force 28.14 million,accounting for about 10% of the total number of china migrant workers.According to incomplete statistics,the total amount of rural labor transfer in 14 cities in Henan Province is Zhumadian(246 million),the fastest growing is Zhoukou(33.02%).According to the survey data of Henan Province "Hundred counties and thousands of villages ",the number of migrant workers in the past three years(2013-2015)was 1880,accounting for 21.72% of the total population,accounting for 35.60% of the total working population.It can be seen that the relative surplus of the rural labor force is a major problem faced by Henan Province,and the regional income gap is the most important motive force for the transfer of labor,and the interpersonal and demonstrating driving effect also played a big role.By domestic demand and other domestic and international environmental impact such as the financial crisis,industrial relocation,simple labor-intensive industries seriously damaged,resulting in some migrant workers forced to return to rural areas.In addition,in the government policy support,migrant workers return home to start business,to help the agricultural surplus labor to achieve the nearest employment,increase income,promote economic development,Changyuan County is one of the examples.This paper proposes to promote the employment of agricultural surplus labor force from the aspects of land transfer mechanism,household registration system,rural social security,training of migrant workers and rural financial market,so as to realize the great development of economy and society.