A Study On Customs Tax Prediction Based On The Econometric Model

The Customs of the People's Republic of China is a state organ responsible for the control over inbound and outbound activities through the Customs territory, collect customs duties and other taxes and fees (hereinafter referred to as customs tariffs) is one of the most important functions. A tariff is one of the main sources of state tax by an increase in the national revenue has an important meaning, but also plays an safeguarding state sovereignty and economic interests, protecting and promoting the development of agricultural production in the country and adjusting the national economic and foreign trade the important role. Customs tariff of how many international and domestic economic situation closely, the current ever-changing domestic and international economic situation make tariffs imposed in dynamic changes in the amount of the tariff revenue forecast, increased difficulties, rely on the experience and the traditional forecasting method will not satisfy the current tariff revenue forecast requirements. Therefore, we will be guided by the scientific development concept, actively adapt to economic changes, combined with tianjin customs duties levied by the actual situation, introduce scientific theory knowledge, expand innovation, by establishing econometric model, will be an econometric theory is introduced into tariff revenue forecast, by constructing time sequence of regression analysis model to predict tariffs, again will use the predictions of the theoretical model combining the actual economic development situation, customs relevant tax policy adjustments and the production and operation of enterprises of the adjustment, then achieve greatly improve tax forecasting accuracy of scientific and objective. Meanwhile, we in daily business will be taken other related measures such as: make sure the tariff revenue forecast of original data accuracy, pay close attention to the global economic situation and trade situation, closely monitoring key source enterprise import/export and strengthening customs internal relevant departments such as the coordination between to ensure the tariff tax forecasting accuracy.This paper is divided into four chapters. The first chapter is the introduction section, mainly expounds the problem put forward, analyzes and studies the purpose and significance of the problem, this paper introduces the main research method and main contents and frame structure. The second chapter presents the customs and duties on the basic situation and domestic situation of customs tax prediction, this paper expounds the necessity of the excise tax forecasting. The third chapter for the main parts, in this paper briefly introduced the related theoretical knowledge and econometric model in the foundation, the union influence tax forecasting value of related factors, elaborated the using time series forecasting regression analysis model of the excise tax method and general steps, and that the relevant conclusions. The fourth chapter presents to ensure tax revenue forecast accuracy of other relevant measures.