Typical Market Energy Price Ratio Relations And Energy Forecasting Early Warning Mechanism

Badly designed energy price mechanism usually lead to unfair competition, trigger social contradictions, which is conducive to the conformation of harmonious society. Since financial crisis appeared in American, dramatic price fluctuations appeared in oil, coal and other energy prices curves. With the continuous advance of China’s industrialization and urbanization, Energy demand growth rapidly, meanwhile, supply shortage of coal, oil and other energy resources occur frequently. However, it will increase the fluctuation risk to energy prices after energy market internationalization. In the macro background, researching the problem of energy prices relations and forecasting and early warning mechanism are of great significant to enhance our country’s energy price control.This paper is divided into five parts. Firstly, we achieved the selection of typical energy market; next, compared and analyzed the level of energy price ratio amoung typical energy market of domestic and foreign; thirdly, combining with chinese situation, determined a reasonable range of energy price ratio based on CGE; fourthly, useing multiple regression method, econometric model, artificial intelligence, risk analysis forecasting model and the growth method for predict the trend of various energy prices and of prices ratio; finally, reveal the early warning factors of typical energy market based on Correlation analysis, Comparison analysis of price ratio, the reasonable range of price ratio and the future development trend of energy price, then construct the system of energy price early warning and put forward reasonable suggestions to early warning management of future energy prices and price ratio...