Effects Of Exchange Rate And Tax Rebates To Export

Since China's reform and opening up, China has created a miracle in international trade, under the export-oriented policy guidance. 1978 to 2009, China expanded its exports to 146 times and the average annual growth rate of export is more than 18%. We should appreciate the achievements of exports, but the problems can not be ignored: the export growth rate can up to 40%, but can also be as low as -18.4%. At this moment, domestic economic growth mode transformation has not yet been achieved, domestic consumption is still weak, foreign demand is still very important, hense, how to keep trade stable, has become a serious problem.Exchange rate and export tax rebate policy are considered as important policy instrument for export. Since the financial crisis of 2008, domestic exports suffered a serious setback. In response to the decline in exports, domestic goverment adjust export tax rebate policy frequently. Since August 1st, 2008, the export tax rebate rate had increasd 7 times. While keep the RMB stable during this period. 2010, domestic export began to rise and have a restorative growth. The recovery of exports bring pressure to RMB appreciation, then the People's Bank of China announced on June 19 that further promote would be done on RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, enhance the RMB exchange rate flexibility; at the same time, the Ministry of Finance, State Administration of Taxation announced on July 15 to tune lower export tax rebate rate of some products. Which is more effective on adjustment of export; if a coordination mechanism exist while in adjustment of export between the two policies; is there a regional difference?To solve the above problems, this paper gives theoretical analysis,empirical analysis,empirical analysis and comparative analysis. The paper reviews international trade theories about tax rebate rate and exchange rate, summarize the history and experiences of export tax rebates, the exchange rate policy, compared to the export tax rebate system at home and abroad and then made reference. The article give empirical analysis in two perspectives: the first is about national time series data and set a SVAR model, the second is about regional panel data and construct a fixed effect and variable coefficient regression model. The empirical results show that: export tax rebate policy is important than exchange rate policy on the adjustment of export. It is reflected in the short time lag effect, significant effect on the region's exports, large elasticity on affecting export; there is a certain coordination mechanism between export tax rebates and exchange rate policy during adjusting export and in response to pressure of international community. According to the conclusion, the paper gets that: in response to export instability, relieve the currency appreciation pressure, adjust the structure of export commodities, etc., we should actively use the export tax rebate policy, prudent use exchange rate policy.