Study On International Trade And Macroeconomic Fluctuation In China

In the course of world economic integration, international trade plays an important role in the economic development for one country. Besides, it is one of main propagation channel of economic fluctuation. Hereby, based on Real Business Cycles Theory, we analyze the relationship between the international trade and macroeconomic fluctuation, which may supply a new view on the study for macroeconomic fluctuation in the future.The article has five parts. Part 1 is the introduction, mainly including our study underground and significance, the literature review at home and abroad, the arrangement of the content, etc. Part 2 is some concepts used in our study, such as trade multiplier, terms of trade, technical progress, business cycles and it also introduce related theory about the relationship between international trade and macroeconomic fluctuation as the theoretical basis of this paper. Part 3 defines the forms of trade shocks to macroeconomic fluctuation and the characteristic of macroeconomic fluctuation since the reform and opening period in China. Part 4 is the empirical research. In this part, through the econometric methods, such as liner regression, co-integration, impulse response and so on, we use the Eviews 6.0 software to analyze the trade influence on macroeconomic from inner and outer shocks respectively. Part 5 is the conclusion. It includes the full text summary, the countermeasures for trade development in China after the financial crisis and the further research events needed. Ultimately, it draws the following conclusions:Firstly, there is a prominent mutual causal relationship between international trade and macroeconomic fluctuation. Trade promotes the development of macroeconomic. Instead, macroeconomic fluctuation will have important effect on the development of trade in the short or long run.Secondly, from the three fundamental forms of trade shock to macroeconomic fluctuation, it showed that foreign demand shock has the most prominent and direct effect on macroeconomic fluctuation. In the short run, the terms of trade and total factor productivity will bring positive impact effect to macroeconomic fluctuation. Comparatively speaking, total factor productivity can give stronger interpretation, whose value reaches 40% or so.Thirdly, from the results of the empirical analysis about macroeconomic fluctuation, it shows that long-term co-integration relation exists between the factors of macroeconomic and economic fluctuation. And we find that trade factor plays the most important role. The related coefficient between export and economic fluctuation reaches 0.593, which is much higher than consumption and investment shocks.