Study On Trilateral Exchange Rate Fluctuation's Influence On Sino-Ameirica Trade And Coping Strategy

In the case of the global economic malaise, the international financial system is undergoing a contest of tripartite exchange rate policy between the United States ,Europe and China.U.S. dollar and the euro are major international reserve currency, the yuan is at the outer edge of international currency, China is in most disadvantaged position. Driven by the financial crisis, the yuan is forced to a significant appreciation.A currency appreciation (depreciation) implies that the international competitiveness of its products declines (rises), which in turn affects the trade of products . The European Union, the United States are respectively China's first, the second largest trading partner, trade value in both areas is much higher than other trading partners, and the United States's trade with China is basically the same with the euro area's trade with China in category constitution and proportion of the import and export products. To a certain extent ,there is a counter-balance relationship existing in the two areas's trades with China .By Johansen cointegration analysis , the paper reaches a conclusion: The real exchange rate of U.S. dollar and the euro respectively have positive and negative effects on Sino-US trade balance, the absolute value of the former is more than the latter, and the hysteresis is not obvious.Based on empirical results, this paper carried out a exchange rate game, its conclusions are verified with the real data: If depreciation magnitude of the euro dollar rate is more than a certain percentage of depreciation magnitude of the US dollors ,or appreciation magnitude of the euro dollar rate is less than a certain percentage of the appreciation magnitude of the US dollors ,the Sino-US trade balance will increase, that is, the ratio of Sino-US exports and imports will continue to increase, the conduct that United States simply forces the appreciation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar in order to improve the trade deficit does not necessarily work.Because the depreciation of the euro will whittle down the decreasing effect of the U.S. dollar's depreciation on Sino-US trade balance , the appreciation of the euro will reduce the increasing effect. of the dollar's appreciation on Sino-US trade balance. Furthermore, looking back from April 2002 to October 2008, China's trade surplus with the United States has greatly increased, but the ratio of Sino-US exports to imports little changed, which fully demonstrates that China and the U.S. are complementary in economic structure, the United States can not do without China, the surplus increased only because of the enhancement of the level of opening-up and consumption and other reasons. Thus, we should friendly coordinate with the United States to eliminate prejudices, and take good advantage of the power of checks and balancesthe of European Union and other international forces , and enhance international cooperation, the government and enterprises should also make full cooperation,in order to take good countermeasures to cope with exchange rate risks imposed on China's trade and economy.