Analysis About The Influence Of The CNY Exchange Rate Change On Sino-us Trade

Since 21 Century, the economic globalization has been developing rapidly and China, as the largest developing country, has been an indispensable part of the world. According to the statistics of 2015, China accounted for more than 25% of world economic growth. Total volume of Chinese goods exports has been the most of the world and the volume of Chinese goods import has been the second in the word which is just less than American. China has been the largest trade country. America is located in the dominance of the global economy and has been the largest export market and import trading nation of China. Thus, the trade between China and America always attacts much concern. At the same time, along with the development of Chinese economy and the improvement of international influence, the status of CNY has been enhanced. From China’s reform and opening to July, 2015, the exchange rate of CNY to USD keep increasing, resulting in many trade frictions. But since August of 2015, the exchange rate began to reduce, and some experts predicted that this tendency will continue to maintain. Therefore, studing what kind of influence the change of exchange rate will have on the sino-us trade balance and what measures should be taken by our government and export enterprises is very importance and necessity.In this paper, we will research the impact of exchange rate changes on import and export of China and the United States.With elastic analysis, the J curve effect, absorption analysis and monetary analysis as well as the exchange rate of incomplete transfer theory as a foundation, selecting data from 2005 to 2015, we made the empirical analysis on the relationship between the CNY exchange rate and the bilateral trade of China and America. Besides, we also made the empirical analysis to the influence exchange rate changes having on the mechanical and electrical products trade of China to illustrate the result of the relationship between the CNY exchange rate and the bilateral trade of China and America. Finally, we came to an conclusion that the CNY exchange rate appreciationis conductive to the increase of the sino-us trade imports and bring negative effect to exports. But the influence is not significant and the result do not conform to the Marshall-lerner condition. And then some enlightenment and policy suggestions are given that reducing China’s trade surplus cannot rely on the appreciation of the CNY, China’s trade product structure need to be further optimized and China, as well as Chinese export enterprises should set up the exchange rate risk prevention mechanism.