Research About RMB Exchange Movement's Impact On Dividend Yield Of Manufacture Industry

Dividend yield is affected by many factors. Exchange rate is one of the most important variable ,research about the relationship about exchange rate market and stock market always attracts foreign and local investors,economists and managers'attentions. With different methods, many scholars analysis the relationship about exchange rate and stock price focus on macroscopically and microscopically and other aspects, but few could precisely estimate the marginal utility of exchange rate to stock price. Since Jorion brought forward a method that could precisely estimate the marginal utility of exchange rate to dividend yield at his paper, many scholars adopted the method but few could obtain distinct demonstration from their research.In the view of the publicly listed firms of China manufacture industry , this paper modified Jordon's(1990)model and established the panel data model to examine the causal relation from exchange rate to dividend yield of publicly listed firms of China manufacture industry ,based on panel data from 21st July 2005 to 17th Dec 2008.The main purpose is to find the companies'risk exposure which market risk excluded when the exchange rate of RMB-Dollar drops gradually. We find that dividend yield is positive correlation with market risk and the correlation rate is significant; as a whole, appreciation of RMB-Dollar has negative influence to dividend yield of manufacture industry while lagged effect exists; this paper examined subsections further and the results show that the causal relations from exchange rate to dividend yield of publicly listed firms are different from subsections of manufacture industry.This paper comparatively precisely estimates the benefit extent and the injured extent of dividend yields of the whole manufacture industry and its eight subsections suffered from appreciation of RMB-Dollar and also considered the different characters among the subsections of manufacture industry. The paper proves the lagged effect occurred at the causal relations from exchange rate to dividend yield, makes up the blank of research about the causal relations from RMB exchange rate movements to microcosmic enterprise's dividend yield and offers the gist and suggestions that enterprises solve exchange rate risks. Besides, this paper adapted panel data model to analyze, considered the time rules and individual characters of researched datas, the variable of stock dividend yield also calculated dividend distribution,stock split,shares allotment,bonus reinvestment, all of these made the results of paper more persuasive.