| China is in the period of rapid economic growth, demand for energy is increasing, it is a question we need to answer that whether energy is enough for holding up economic growth in the limited environment capability. At present, China has adjusted energy strategy, the research priority changes from the balance between supply and demand of energy to the coordinated development of energy, economic and environment, it is necessary to look for sustainable energy system to reduce energy consumption and environmental pollution while ensuring economic growth.This paper is based on the input-output analysis, combining multi-objective programming, to set up multi-objective and input-output optimization model on energy system of the nation and corporation. Taking WISCO for example, the model of corporation is in brief, the research of national energy system is focal point of this paper. Firstly, it is necessary to rebuild input-output table of 2002 by dividing into five energy departments and six other departments and leading into investment matrix.Secondly, considering energy, economic and environment, the multi-objective and dynamic input-output optimization model contains three objective functions and some constraint conditions on input-output theory and energy practice. This model can look for reasonable programming of national energy system from 2003 to 2030.Finally, all of data come from the national input-output table of 2002 and statistical yearbook, after updating direct consume coefficients and calculating and updating investment coefficients and forecasting final net consumption, the model is calculated by genetic algorithm, then the predicted results of the total output, GDP, and the proportion of every department in GDP of 11 departments from 2003 to 2030 are given. Analyzing the results, this paper thinks that it is urgent to explore and use high quality energy and adjust industrial structural for achieving the coordinated development of energy, economic and environment. |
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