Research On Chinese Regional Energy Rebound Effect Based On Nested CES Function

The current situation of China's energy development facing the outstanding contradictions and problem, first, demand of consumption is growing and resource constraints is getting more and more serious; Second is that energy efficiency need to be improved and the task of saving energy is still huge. Third, the contradictions constituted by the energy consumption structure will be even more acute, and the environmental pollution will be more serious. While we always think the improving energy efficiency will be reduce energy consumption and thus deal with our energy problems. But is that really the case, whether the improving energy use efficiency will reduce energy consumption, and whether the―Jevons Paradox‖is existed in China like in other countries, the domestic research also rarely about those questions while the rebound effect is one of the hot topics in the international energy economics field. Therefore this paper will study on the theory of rebound effect mechanism, construct a model for measuring rebound effect in China and explore it with the regional data.(1) This paper makes a systematic research on rebound effect mechanism founded on the Neo-classical growth theory. Base on the decomposition on the rebound effect, it analyses the direct and indirect effect mechanism to both producers and consumers.(2) From a macro-economic viewpoint, this paper constructs a model for measuring rebound effect in China basing on the Neo-classical growth theory and the CES production function. Meanwhile, it takes the regional input-output data from 1985 to 2005 to make an empirical study on the rebound effect for different regions. The results show that, the short-time rebound effect of our country is less than 100%, and the rebound effect decreased in order of eastern, central and western. In the long time, the rebound effect of all regions is a decreasing tendency, and the central and the western is more than 100% which means backfire appears, and the rebound effect of the eastern is relatively small.(3)This paper analyses the empirical research result in-depth from the horizontal and vertical, and gives some suggestions on energy conservation policy which including technological, structural and managemental energy conservation.