A Study On Early Warning System Of Grain Production In Henan Province

It is known that agriculture is fundamental, while grain production is much more basic. The grain issue, being important for a nation, plays a vital role for China and other developing countries. As a big agricultural province, Henan saw fast development of grain production. When new China was founded, grain production in Henan reached only 7.24 million tons. In 2002, grain production in Henan was nearly 5 times more than that in 1949. But the grain production fluctuates every year. The contradiction between man and land escalates. The grain sort patterns have defects. Much money is needed by agriculture. And agricultural labor lacks. All of these factors influence the grain production in Henan greatly. An early warning system is built in order to figure out warning levels of Henan's grain production of every year. Means of lessening that fluctuation are put forward so as to decrease losses. Thanks to the use of gray forecast theory, gray conjunction methods, time series analysis and other approaches, this early warning system works well. The early warning lamp system conveniently indicates that grain production of every year shows warning, but warning levels differ. This paper finds major problems that the grain production in Henan has. Firstly, land areas shrink sharply which hinders grain productivity from improving. Secondly, rough running decreases output rate of lands. Thirdly, agricultural infrastructure is weak that denies better grain productivity. Fourthly, the importance of planting grain is ignored because of lack of money. Fifthly, slow development of agricultural service of science and technology stops fast grain production. Sixthly, advanced technology of grain production is scarce. Seventhly, many farmers are undereducated. Ninthly, rural ecological environments are deteriorating. And tenthly, comparative benefits of planting grain is low.Some suggestions are listed as below. To begin with, lands, water and other natural resources should be protected properly. Second, limited resources should be configured reasonably and economic effects should be improved. Third, researches on extensions of technology of grain must be reinforced. Fourth, better seeds should be cultivated which is crucial for good harvest of grain. Fifth, agricultural infrastructures should be made better. And sixth and the last, a better production system must be constructed.