Study On The Forecasting Of Logistics Market Demands

With the economic globalization and informationlization accelerating continuously , the logistics as the new service industry that has broad prospects and value-added function, has been developing rapidly throughout the world since the middle of 1980s.At the same time, as the key segment running through social production activity, it is considered as the third source of profits and paid more attention to. During the world war II , the logistics sprang up in the USA. Then it developed rapidly in western countries and Japan. The logistics in China started late and the research on it dated from the end of 1970s and the beginning of 1980s. Because of the lack of the correct cognition about developing ideas and operational modes of modern logistics, especially the absence of the base data on the demand analysis for logistics market, there are widely phenomena of repeating constructions and blind investment in logistics planning. And the quantitative logistics is also the formidable barrier. Therefore, as for making the regional policy of logistics development and confirming the construction scale of logistics infrastructure, the key is to establish the scientific index system and the reasonable forecasting model.In order to quantify logistics effectively and provide references for the logistics planning in our country and regions, this paper does the groping research on demand forecast of logistics market, objectively analyzes the factors which affect the demands in logistics market, establishes a set of logistics market demand index system which is feasible, then put forward the combination forecasting model to predict the demands in logistics market after synthetically comparing and analyzing various forecasting methods.This paper divides the research content into three parts, the frame is as follows: Part I. Designs of demand forecasting index system in logistics market As the theoretical research on logistics in China is still at the study and groping stage, there is neither no unanimous verdict about the factors affecting logistics market demands, nor complete logistics statistics index system. So in this part, the paper objectively analyzes the factors which affect the demands in logistics market at first and their affecting degree with Grey Relating Legal Variable. Then, according to the characteristics of logistics market demand itself, this paper designs the demand scale forecasting index and demand structure forecasting index in logistics market from the...