The Research On Jiangsu Manufacturing Industry's Structural Change And Its Mechanism After China's WTO Entry

From 1997 to 2010, China's economy has been transferring from planned economy to socialist market economy; China has jointed the World Trade Organization (WTO), and will fulfill its commitment to the WTO during the period. Jiangsu, as a coastal developed province, has been greatly influenced by above-mentioned transition. Such impact is unbalance between and within industries. The paper will study operation and evolution basics of Jaingsu's manufacturing sector in the period from 1997 to 2010.Based on 1997-2004 data of Jiangsu manufacturing sector, the paper analyzes the structural change of Jiangsu manufacturing sector, estimates TFP growth and its components, and forecasts the structure of the sector until 2010. The paper comprises of seven chapters. Chapter I gives brief introduction of Jiangsu's manufacturing sector, summarizes possible impact of China's entry into the WTO on the sector, and raises problems. Chapter II reviews literatures about both industrial structure and the general equilibrium methods used to study industrial structure. Chapter III describes a recursive dynamic general equilibrium model developed for studying Jiangsu manufacturing sector. Chapter IV briefs the evolution process of the sector, and simulates the structure change of the sector using the model developed in the previous chapter. Chapter V further studies the logic behind the evolution. Chapter VI gives policy suggestions and predicts orientation of future research.The main conclusions of the paper are as follows:Firstly, since 1997 Jiangsu's manufacturing industry has maintained growth in terms of quantity and return on factors, while most of its sectors have witnessed a larger return on capital compared with return on labor.Secondly, from 1997 to 2004 Jiangsu's manufacturing industry suffered from a decline in TFP growth.Thirdly, since 1997 investment and exports have become the major force driving growth of Jiangsu's manufacturing industry, while its dependence on domestic trade has dropped by 50%.Fourthly, after China's accession to the WTO, the capital-goods sectors of Jiangsu's manufacturing industry will enjoy high growth rate while its growth efficiency is not yet high.