Sale Risk Analysis For Grid Corporation In Power Market

Grid corporations always think about how to maximize their profits. However, in the market there exist not only expected profits, but also enormous financial risks. Therefore, it is critical for grid corporations to manage potential financial risks. Fluctuation of the electricity price, which is one of the kernel questions in the market, often results in financial risk. This thesis will discuss grid corporations'financial risks based on fluctuation of the electricity price, and calculate the Value at Risk, and then bring about a strategy to manage the risks.Firstly, area power market design principles and modes are introduced, which helps to convey the grid corporations'financial potential risks in the new condition. After analyzing exterior and interior conditions and operation mechanism of the grid corporations, this paper explains the reasons that risks exist and presents risk prevention strategy from the point of view of risk management.In this thesis, the definition of VaR and two methods for calculating called historic simulation and Monte Carlo simulation are presented successively, and then veracity verify of VaR is discussed. Electricity price uncertain due to load forecast uncertainty is analyzed through VAR calculation. In order to obtain the relation of load forecast and electricity price, Monte-Carlo Method is used in the modeling of risk evaluation. The VaR of price based on load forecast uncertainty is calculated, and the reasonable price with the minimum risks is obtained.At last, risks existing in the electricity fee charging are discussed based on the work in Jiangsu Province, which includes interior risks during the management of fee charging, the clients credit risk and the exterior condition impacts. After discussing the procedure of credit risk management, this paper presents the method for measuring the risk and introduces a new sailing strategy.