Research Of Contingencies Estimation Of A Certain Power Plant Project Bidding Based On The Risk Analysis

International electric power construction projects generally put forward a very high risk management requirements to the general contractor of these projects,not only because of their long construction period(often calculated annually),a huge amount of investment(often calculated in billions of dollars),higher technical requirements and great many of uncertain factors,but also of often using bidding to determine the contractor of certain project,often using fixed price contract and other significant characteristics of these projects.Therefore in the bidding phase,the contractor usually consider a certain amount of unforeseen charges against the uncertain risk of the construction period in the future,and the determination of unforeseen cost is usually based on the subjective evaluation and choice.In this thesis,the evaluation and selection of the proportion of unforeseen expenses in the bidding of the coal-fired power plant project in a country of Southeast Asia is taken as an example,through setting up analysis model,then using the Analytic Network Process(ANP)and Monte Carlo Simulation Algorithm under this model to determine a reasonable proportion of unforeseen expenses,eventually achieve the objective that not only having reasonable contingencies after bid awarding against all kinds of possible risks of the construction process in the further,but also to forestall exorbitant contingencies affecting winning the bidding through quantitative evaluation,which could limit the amount of unforeseen expenses within reasonable range.Firstly,the mathematical model of the contingencies of the project is established according to the physical situation of domestic corporations and the research achievements of experts and scholars,then the risk factors have been identified and classified through delphi method,and all kinds of risk factors affecting the bidding of the project are determined,and the global weights of these factors are analyzed by the Analytic Network Process(ANP)method.Then the probability distribution of the risk variables are determined according to the conditions of project host country and the using of mathematical statistics to analyze the actual cost of each project risk factors of the completed project in the company.And then the final determination of the proportion of unforeseen costs could be achieved by the final results from multiple sampling check through the Monte Carlo algorithm calculation software.This thesis is a discussion on the determination and selection of the unforeseen cost in the project bidding period,it is expected to break through the practice of determining the cost mainly by subjective judgment,and to determine the contingencies by a more quantitative method,in order to achieve the purpose that both the winning of bidding and the right amount of unforeseen expenses which can withstand the future risk of projects.