Process Estimating And Strategic Idea On Agricultural Modernization In Zhangye

Realizing agricultural modernization and taking rural industrialized road is an effective way, which contributes to breakthrough the limitation of traditional agriculture and improves agriculture run new stage. It is also an important way to realizing the sustainable development of agriculture and country, and a way to promoting them harmonious and all-round development. Strengthening the study on agricultural modernization of Zhangye city undoubtedly plays a positive role in boosting its healthy fast development.Based on extensive documents and research results at home and aboard, the thesis analyzes conceptions, intensions, and levels of agricultural modernization. It also summarizes the gradual progress course of agricultural modernization in Zhangye city. And the nature description has been given about the characteristic of agricultural modernization in different stage. According to the analysis of various estimating models, we have established a model in Zhangye city, determined the estimating stage and analyzed the level of modernization. Meanwhile, through the practical test to the model, we analyzed the process estimating of different provinces, including Zhangye city and some developed areas, such as Shanghai, Fujian, Zhejiang etc. Finally, several plans have been put forward: the thought, goal and measures about building modern agriculture in local, the framework constructing modernization and the strategic idea realizing it. The results are as follows:1.Having established the process estimating models agricultural modernization in Zhangye city. Proposals relatively consistent with the changed course of agricultural modernization have been given, which are based on Zhangye's practice and experts' questionnaire investigations, and on the comparing with domestic and international agricultural modernization index system. These proposals can reflect the agricultural modernization level in Zhangye quantitatively and objectively, especially beneficial to estimating the index system of the agricultural modernization development level in this area and weight of every index .The system is composed of 6 first class indexes (Agricultural horizontal index of output, development level index of the rural economy, peasant's living standard index , agricultural modernization material equipment index, peasant more educated index and environmental quality level index) and 21 second class index. According to the index arrangement and level analysis of agricultural modernization, the estimating models have been constructed and put forward its index formula (formula 2). (formula 1)in this formula: Za stand for estimating index, Xija stand for first and econd class index, Wij stand for weight of every index, fi stand for first class weight of every index ..........Z=0.25Z₁+0.22Z₂+0.18Z₃+0.17Z₄+0.1Z₅+0.08Z₆ (formula 2)2. The primary and secondary factor influencing the process have been determined. The analysis shows that the key factor affecting modernization is the development level of agricultural production and economy. In order to improving the comprehensive index of agricultural modernization and realize it, it is essential to boost the development level index of both agricultural production and economy. Then the index of technology, investment, environmental protection, consumption are followed. In terms of second class index, comparing to standard value, the bigger difference lies in the output rate of cultivated land, labor productivity, output value of multi-form agriculture structure , non-agricultural workforce's proportion, per capita net income of peasants , rural per capita output value of township enterprise and forest coverage rate.3. Discribed the characteristics of Zhangye agricultural modernization in different stages qualitatively and quantitatively. The model calculate indicates that the agriculture ofZhangye has been from modernization preparatory stage of late 1980s to modernization starting stage of late 1990s. The composite index of agricultural modernization was only 23.34 in 1990, which less 7.7% than low limit, 31, of starting stage of agricultural modernization. But entry into 2000, the figure was 35.80, which had been beyond 4.8% comparing with the low limit of the modernization starting stage. During 10 years of 1990-2000, composite index in Zhangye have totally increased 12.46 %.4. Comparing Zhangye agricultural modernization characteristics in different stage with Jiuquan and some developed areas. According to model calculate and analysis about composite index and sub-index of agricultural modernization made between Zhangye and Jiuquan, the results show that the two areas, both located in the ecological and economical belt in Hexi Corridor, promote the construction pace of agricultural modernization and the key factors influencing modernization are the same. They are successively the production index , consumption index, investment index , economy index , science and technology index and environmental protection index. However, when it comes to the general construction of agricultural modernization, Zhangye agricultural modernization lags behind Jiuquan. And there is a disparity in developing steps. For example, the highest and lowest index are respectively 41.98 and 22.08 in Jiuquan which are beyond 6.18 and 1.82 seperately comparing to Zhangye.The same calculate has been done among some developed areas such as Fujian , Jiangxi, Zhejiang , Shanghai, Guangdong etc. The result indicates that in the modernization process estimating made in 1995, first place is Shanghai, the composite index high 70.1, second is Zhejiang, 48.6, Guangdong is third, 46.5, Fujian is forth, 43.4, Jiangxi ranks fifth, 33.1 and Zhangye is last one, 29.85.The calculate shows that Shanghai has entered and realized agricultural modernization stage tentatively, 4 provinces of Zhejiang, Guangdong , Fujian , Jiangxi has already entered the modernized starting stage while the agriculture of Zhangye is marching towards the modernized starting stage. Obviously, Zhangye agricultural modernization has made a remarkable effect and appears progressive growth momentum rapidly all the time. But from estimating analysis result, its agricultural modernization composite index is quite low and there is greater disparity, compared with the developed city of sea, especially in some important indexes: the development level of agricultural production, development level of the rural economy, etc, which has become the key field of restricting agricultural modernization. Put forward the goal and measures that Zhangye agriculture basically realizes modernization in the middle of this century. Have confirmed the overall idea and . recent, middle period, and long-term goal of Zhangye agricultural modernization. Have put forward the strategic countermeasure of agricultural modernization in Zhangye: 1) fostering the rural market actively and innovating the mechanism of land circulations; 2)regarding technological progress as urging, improving the difference degree and technological content of agricultural products constantly;3) advancing the industrialization of agricultural managing in a more cost-effective manner , improving organization , standardization and brand level of the agricultural industry constantly;4) accelerating the regulations of rural economy and the renovation of villages, strengthening and moving forward the rural new community's construction of socialism; 5) deepening rural reform further, developing rural industry in a more cost-effective manner , improving the ability of back feeding agriculture constantly; 6) insisting on urban and rural areas to combine , developing in coordination , advancing the transformation of the surplus rural labor force steadily; 7)carrying out simultaneously development of resources and thrift, take the road to agricultural sustainable development; 8) accelerating the coordinate development steps of" three modernization", promoting the agricultural modernization process.