Analysis And Prediction On Real Estate Investment Behavior

In this paper, inherent evolvement mechanism of real estate market fluctuation under open environmental condition is studied through analyzing influence of prospective of actors to real estate market fluctuation; Efficient market hypothesis and the assumption that people are rational are broadened, the relative theory of real estate market fluctuation is added and extended under the assumption that market is inefficient and people are irrational; the process of real estate market fluctuation is simulated to find out the critical factor in it. It is useful and referential for government to establish relative policy. The main content of this paper is as follows:First of all, behavioral economics is applied to real estate market and real estate market is analyzed under this assumption. According to the behavioral characteristic of different participant in real estate market, division of the participants is renewed. The relationship between different participants and the influence of their mental factor to real estate market fluctuation are studied.Secondly, the influencing mechanism of real estate market fluctuation is labored with considering the characteristics of participants and factors to real estate market fluctuation, then"participants-housing price"compound system is set up. Model of real estate market fluctuation in price is established by adding a behavioral variable into classical econometrics model with price as its dependent variable, starting with outside and inside mechanism and factors of housing price.Thirdly, simulation and forecast is realized by using the simulation software Powersim to modeling the"participant-housing price"compound system. The figured diagrams of real estate price fluctuation and interference of housing price and its factors are educed, and then they are studied embedded.At last, chief conclusion is expatiated, and suggestions are advanced in point of government's view.The main conclusions of this paper are: first, real estate price fluctuation is the co-influence of outside and inside mechanism. The reciprocity of credit and interest rate mechanisms, behavior of participants (psychological prospect, speculation and conformity) and elasticity of supply mechanisms leads to the result that real estate...