The Empirical Analysis Of Beijing's Real Estate Bubble's Existence And The Study Of The Causes And Countermeasures

This paper focused on a particular area ~ Beijing's real estate bubble for Empirical Research in Economics. Its purpose is making a comprehensive analysis and answer of the existence of the bubble through the current high prices, thus it will help us more clearly understand the causes of the property bubble for the solution of practical problems for reference. In addition,from the causes of the bubble, bubble model exploring demonstrated a reasonable and correct results , compensating for the lack of qualitative analysis, thus making the bubble theory more enriched with a certain theoretical significance.Based on industry economics, macroeconomics, econometrics, and other related theories as a guide, using the Theory of Law, Mathematical model, qualitative analysis, case law, comparative analysis and other research methods. Specific methods used are as follows : the exposition of the concept of the bubble, the paper used the case law and Theory of Law, through the famous bubble, and the research results have been summarized to answer what is a bubble; on the answer, the existence of the real estate bubble burst of the bubble whether this issue, there was a qualitative analysis, Comparative analysis of the mathematical model, in which mathematical model to occupy an important position; for the cause of the bubble and countermeasures was largely qualitative analysis methods.Based on Beijing's real estate bubble regression model, the following conclusions are drawn : Beijing commercial housing market bubble does exist, in which the demand for space in 2006, reached a peak, 2006-2010 is still growing, in 2010 reached a peak value; supply-demand relations in 2007, 2008 marked the beginning of two years of oversupply; If the next two years, residential investment is still under way there continues, the real estate bubble will continue to expand. and very likely in 2009 or 2010 rupture.Combining model predictive conclusions from the bubble is the macroeconomic environment, institutional reasons, Micro-factors aspects of the reasons for analysis and policy recommendations.