| In recent years, with the deepening of the housing system reform and accelerating of Nanchang urbanization, the real estate business in Nanchang develop fast, witnessing a vision of prosperity in both supply and demand, which can be seen in the yearly-increasing rate of the added value in real estate in GDP, the increasing in the acreage of commercial residential building and the acreage of the houses sold, the tendency of the increased and still increasing price of commercial residential building, etc.. Naturally, the debate on the rationality of the housing price and the existing bubble in the real estate of Nanchang spreads before us. This thesis will take this as the starting poling and do some empirical study on such issues as how to measure the existing of bubble, how it brings about and how to control it.This thesis will take a retrospect of the history of the bubble economy, and then deduce the definition of the bubble and make a brief introduction of the concerning theories, with which as a basis for the research. The preliminary research on the bubble problem in the real estate business of Nanchang will also be done. The development status quo of the real estate business of Nanchang will be firstly introduced. In order to investigate the bubble problem of the real estate business, the commercial residential housing market will be taken as an example to simulate the development tendency of supply and demand of Nanchang commercial residential housing, the starting point, and foresee the development of it in the coming years by the way of establishing econometric model. The analytical results indicate that there do exist the bubble phenomenon in Nanchang real estate business.In the last part of the thesis, from the perspectives of macro economic environment under which Nanchang real estate bubble problem brings about, the systematical reasons and some micro factors, some countermeasures will be proposed pertinently for the Nanchang real estate bubble problem. |
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