The Application Of Bass Model In Domestic Market Forecast Of Room Air-Conditioner

Room air-conditioner has very high diffusion rate on domestic first and second class market represented by big city,but the diffusion on the third and fourth class market is in the primary stage. So the development of the third and fourth class market, which owns more than 2,800 county towns and more than 50,000 villages and towns , will become the inevitable strategic choice of every big room air-conditioner brand. Market forecast can offer the foundation for making production schedule, confirming operational policy, carrying on administrative decision, and determine the economic benefit to a great extent. So objectively forecasting the third and fourth class market can provide the foundation for room air-conditioner operators.This paper forecasts the number of room air-conditioner users on the third and fourth class market from macroscopic perspective, i.e. forecasts the diffusion of room air-conditioner. Room air-conditioner is durable consumer goods, and its diffusion law on the market can be described by Bass model, so Bass model is carried to forecast the market.The diffusion of room air-conditioner on the third and fourth class market is in the primary stage, therefore there is not enough data to estimate Bass model parameter (diffusion coefficient). This paper analyzes diffusion coefficients of room air-conditioner on the first and second class market, then estimates diffusion coefficients on the third and fourth class market by using analogy method, and then forecasts the growth rate of room air-conditioner users on the third and fourth class market. This paper finds that the peak value of growth rate of room air-conditioner users on the third and fourth class market appears in 2014, which is consistent with the qualitative forecast of experts. According to forecast conclusion, developing the third and fourth class market has already been extremely urgent. The third and fourth class market is different with the first and second class market in some aspects, such as marketing environment and consumer behavior, so their market strategies are also different. Finally this paper proposes some suggestions of developing the third and fourth class market for room air-conditioner operators.