Actuarial Analysis Of How Gender Difference Influence On Chinese Basic Pension Fund Balance

The basic pension insurance is the center of social security system in China, also one of the most commonly concerned social problems. With the aging of the population, diversified forms of employment and development of urbanization, the ongoing basic old-age insurance system does not go in line with the social and economic development. The major problems are as follows: first, it has not covered a large number of individual businessmen and persons in the form of flexible employment; second, as the individual account has not been funded, the partial accumulation model has not been realized and therefore, it is difficult to meet the needs for the fund in the time of aging, and so on. All of these affect the sound operation and sustainable development of the system, which needs further reform and improvement. Therefore, there is significant social meaning in enhancing research on Chinese basic old-age pension system. Through the present research in this field, most papers were concentrated on qualitative analysis, whereas this paper aims to enhance quantitative analysis on the balance of the fund.This thesis analyzes the influencing factors of the unbalance of pension payment through actuarial analysis from the gender difference aspect. Based on the analysis of the fundamental old age insurance model and the present situation of the revenue and expenditure, the author points out the existing problems and their causes of the revenue and expenditure of the old age insurance fund and make a prediction on the future situation of the revenue and expenditure and try to find out countermeasures to improve it.There are two aspects in this paper that is different from other ones. First, the actuarial method is used to analyze the balance of pension fund according to the sex difference. The former research has introduced the variable of gender, but it just did some qualitative analysis and did not discuss how such difference influence the balance of pension fund, which is the focus of this paper. By the computing result we can conclude that the sex difference did not bring obvious effect on our pension insurance fund social pooling. Though the wage lever and payment age of female is less than that of the male, which causes the monthly drawing amount of female is fewer than that of the male, but the accumulation system can adjust the pension of the female. On the other hand, it is different in the computing of the balance of pension. The relative materials are the recessive liability, computed the recessive liability formed by the pension payment of the aged and the wrinkly, and concluded that our pension insurance system was facing a crisis. In this paper we have computed the revenue and expenditure of annual pension account. Though the gap of the fund in 2007 reaches 2000 hundred million, it will disappear after 2018 for the increase of pension insuring and the decrease of the"old people"and the"middle people". Here the premise is that the individual and the social pooling account are computed separately, that is the gap that is resulted by the individual account is not taken into account.This thesis consists of six parts:First of all, the author introduces the research background and meaning of this topic, relative research results that had achieved both in domestic and foreign scholar, then tells the reader the central content of this thesis.The second chapter illustrates the basic old age pension insurance history, china's present pension system, the way of raising the money needed and issues the present basic old age pension system is facing, such as the decreasing retirement pension, transition cost and so on.Chapter three is entitled"social pension insurance fund actuarial model", in the first place, it explains the hypothesis and parameters need in this chapter, these two parts serve as a preparation for the next content of this chapter. In the second place, it designs three kinds of different actuarial models according to the method of calculation and payment which is"new system for new persons, old method for old persons, and gradual transition for persons in between (middle person)."Then the aggregate actuarial model for retirement pension balance. Personal account proves whether the individual revenue equal to his expenditure at the very moment of his retirement time. Then a social endowment insurance fund model shows whether the fund revenue comes up to expenditure each year. Chapter four is"Model appliance". This chapter predicts the"new person"individual account and the social pooling account fund balance separately. due to there is no individual account accumulation for"old person"and few individual account accumulation for some"middle person", the author mainly apply the"new person"individual account actuarial model to predict whether the revenue equal to the expenditure When forecasting the individual account, A prediction is made for figuring out the future number of workers in employment and of workers in retirement. In addition, the age structures of the two populations re analyzed. In respect that there is much difference in salary, occupation ratio, and retirement age between man and woman, the author applies the models above separately when forecast the social endowment insurance fund revenue.The next chapter—"sensitivity analysis"is conducted that applied to the models in chapter three. It measures the fund needed in the framework of different situations. The related influential factors, i.e., sexual employment ratio, wage, the growth rate of salary and the value-added rate of pension fund, are discussed in great detail. According to the forecasting results, this thesis brings up corresponding countermeasures on the basis of national conditions in chapter six.With the previous five chapters as a foundation, the author touches such issues as control wage increasing speed, set up special institution to deal with problems aroused during transition period, and improve the pension insurance fund investing benefit,change the present situation that policies vary greatly in different localities and to standardize basic insurance system, and so on. At last, the author mentions the shortage of this thesis and its limitations.