An Analysis Of The World Oil Market And China Petroleum Safety Strategy

The safety of petroleum is the important constitute parts of national economy safety, is also main composing factor of the national security. Along with the fast development of the economy, China has become the second consume country in the world , the petroleum safety is is more and more outstanding at the national safety of energy. We analysis the condition of international and demesdic petroleum supply, and some problem. Then give some suggestions: Reforming the price of petroleum mechanism, strengthen exploring and developing of the local petroleum resources , builds up diversified petroleum supply system, developing the new energy, builds up the futures market of petroleum and raises the use of the efficiency of energy etc. suggestions.This text is divided into four parts altogether:The first part, the petroleum safety under the open economy condition. This text we make it clear that for the conception and its inclusion of petroleum safty, statement the relitive theory of petroleum safty in brife. Making use of the model of petroleum safty that is economics analysis of safe strategic of chinese petroleum by zhang yixiang and others. With the analysis to the model, we can konw that the path of guarantee the national petroleum safty mainly has: reducing the petroleum consumption, repressing the need, increasing the petroleum supply, making use of the market of international petroleum. we look back the history of the petroleum market after The second world war. Analyzed the shock of the world economic that form petroleum market motion of the world , in the end , analyzed the reason of the motion of the world petroleum market, make it clear that the level of economics development is the essential reason for the chang of petroleum demand, shortage of unused capcatcaties, politics abrupt issues, ventures, OPEC etc are main factors of causing the motion of the petroleum markrt of the world.The second part, petroleum market supply condition of the world and developing trend. It analyzed the petroleum supply circumstance of the world first. On supplying, petroleum resources of world abundant, the yield increasing is faster than the petroleum need growth, that can guarantee medium long-term stability supply. On consuming, main petroleum consume countries need growth speed to descend year by year, the petroleum of the developing country consumes growth to extend continuously. It analyzed the petroleum market of world and the trend of futures, The world has already entered the high oil price period, the new energy structure and form of the world is becoming.The third part, the petroleum safety strategic of Amrica,Japan etc developed countries. The petroleum safty strategic main contents of developed countries include: The first, the petroleum strategy of storage : the strategic of the petroleum reserve should be valued, to carry on the strategic storage construction, throw in the huge sum. The second, the strategy of exploring and developing :increase exploring the developing devotion, own the ample petroleum resources. The third, the diversified strategy of import source : Hardly make the sources of petroleum's import diversify, scattering the risk of petroleum import. The fourth, The strategy of petroleum lawmaking : Namely national, government and its related laws rise important function in the petroleum activity. The fifth, new energy strategy, then developing new energy, adjusting the structure of energy supply , carrying out diversificationthe of energy need .The fourth part , petroleum safe situation and counterplans of China. It analyzed the local petroleum supply and demand circumstance first. Along with economy growth , the total amount of local petroleum consumes extened quickly, but domestic petroleum of production and supply increasing slowly, causing antinomy of local petroleum supply. Analyzed the risk of chinese petroleum safety. Main performance: the risk of petroleum price , the risk of import depending, the risk of import oil source , the risk of import passage , the risk of using efficiency and the risk of geographic political. It puts forward to set up the strategic main contents of chinese petroleum safety finally: set up the price mechanism that basic of market; to be strengthen the oil explore, increasing the resources of the increment petroleum ; to establish oversea petroleum supply system. make the petroleum enterprise multinational management, improve the energy make use of the structure, to develop the new energy that can replace petroleum availably, develop the petroleum futures market, participate the global oil price competition actively, build up the strategic system of the petroleum safety stores , guaranteeing the national economic safety, to take strict economized energy measure, raising the efficiency of petroleum etc.