Study On Natural Vacancy Rate Of Offices In Guangzhou City

As an important part of real estate sector, office market is regarded as the indicator to show the fluctuation of a city's economy. The office vacancy rate reflects the differences between the demand and supply of the office market and the differences can be minimized if the actual office vacancy rate is near the natural office vacancy rate. Therefore, the natural vacancy rate shall be the standard of the equilibrium between the demand and supply of the office market.In this paper, the following study methods are adopted: empirical research jointed with parse, practice with theory, history with reality, qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis. By using the knowledge of Geography, Real Estate Economics and Statistics, the paper studies deeply the Natural Vacancy Rate of Guangzhou offices. The paper is divided into seven chapters. Chapter one describes the environment and background of our country's offices and sets up the main contents, methods and research route of the paper based on the research results home and abroad. Chapter two interprets some conceptions relative to office and vacancy rate and the effects natural vacancy rate has on the office market and then puts forwards some methods of calculating vacancy rate according to Chinese facts. Chapter three first describes the developing history of Guangzhou's office market and then analyzes deeply the four plates of Guangzhou's offices from four aspects: scope, distribution characteristics, demand and supply characteristics and price. Chapter four begins with choosing several models which are used frequently to calculate natural vacancy rate and interpreting them, then uses them to calculate Guangzhou's natural vacancy rate according to the Guangzhou's office data relative to the vacancy rate from year 1996 to 2005. At last, the paper analyzes and evaluates Guangzhou's office market according to the calculating results. Chapter five studies the characteristics, problems and future trends of Guangzhou's office markets. Chapter six brings forward some suggestions for government, developers and financial institutions to control office vacancy rate to promote the healthy development of Guangzhou's office market.