The Comparison Analysis Of Dependent Ratio Of Taiwan' Trade To Mainland, America And Japan

Since 1990s, trade between Taiwan and the mainland have been developing rapidly, the trade scale expands unceasingly. At present the mainland already is Taiwan's biggest export market and the biggest trade surplus origin place, the mainland simultaneously also is the Taiwan biggest foreign investment place. The developing relationship between Taiwan and mainland has become important power of Taiwan's economic unceasing growing.Since the new century, the economy of Taiwan has prepared the non-economic agent puzzle. In recent years, the economy grew largely glides down in the Island of Taiwan and it faced edge crisis. In order to analysis to Taiwan's foreign trade intercourse situation, and to promote two sides across the Taiwan Strait normal economics and trade intercourse, this theme has selected the relationship between Taiwan and America, Japan these two developed countries and between mainland these three areas to analysis. Uses the measurement real diagnosis and choose data of 1985-2005 as the sample to analyze. Entire separately carries on the short-term and the long-term analysis which using the factor analytic method harmonious cooperation, for the purpose of excavating land trade entity Taiwan depends on exterior economy, then discovers Taiwan and the mainland inseparable economy relation in the comparative analysis.The real diagnosis analysis indicated that the Dependent Ratio of Taiwan' trade to mainland rise year by year; in the Island of Taiwan the development of economy cannot without the mainland. The short-term factor is GDP of Taiwan, the CPI of Taiwan, the exchange rate and the Taiwan main industry output values are the main influence factor. For a long time, the main factors affects Dependent Ratio of Taiwan'trade to mainland is the volume of exports from Taiwan to the mainland, the Taiwan agriculture output value and the Taiwan education level, Taiwan GDP and the unemployment rate of Taiwan. But the short-term primary factor which influence Dependent Ratio of Taiwan' trade to American is Taiwan GDP, the Taiwan industrial output and volume of exports between Taiwan and American. The long-term influence factor also includes the Taiwan education level, American GDP and the exchange rate of dollar to US dollar. The factors which affect Dependent Ratio of Taiwan' trade to Japanese is Taiwan GDP, Japanese GDP, the Taiwan unemployment rate and the Taiwan industrial output as well as the exchange rate between dollar to a Japanese Yen.Compared with US and Japan, Dependent Ratio of Taiwan' trade to mainland is more sensitive by economical conditions of Taiwan. And looked from the influence factor as well as the economical development condition in the Island of Taiwan, Dependent Ratio of Taiwan' trade to mainland also to be able to rise in the future. In the Island of Taiwan, the industry promotes, the industrial shift must strengthen both banks economics and trade cooperation intercourse, as develops the center take the mainland to carry on the shift.But in the two sides across the Taiwan Strait cooperation intercourse, the manufacturing industry still will be important part. The mainland economy rapidly rises, already became the important constituent of world market extremely. Taiwan should closely count on mainland only, which can share more gains with mainland from the rising, melt into the world market better and quickly, avoid the economical edge crisis.