Analysis On China's Economical Risks And Strategies From China's High Trade Dependence Ratio To Usa

In recent years, China and US have a huge impact on global trade development, and they have been widely recognized as the two engines to promote world economic growth. Although the two countries are at different stages of development, their economies are highly complementary. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries, trade relations have been rapidly developed with the trade volume rising successively. At present, China has become America's largest import resources, and the United States is China's second largest trading Partner.The trading relationship between China and US is getting increasingly close, which is a strong impetus to China's economic growth, and at the same time deepens China's trade dependence on the US economy. It is mainly reflected by the fact that China's trade dependence ratio to US is soaring. Trade dependence ratio, the ratio of a country's import and export volume to its GDP in the Period of time(usually one year), is an important indicator of a country's economic dependence on international markets. In 1997, China's trade dependence ratio to US is only 5.14%; then till 2006, it has soared to 9.88%. Currently, however, the US economy is in deep financial crisis, leading to the stagnancy in domestic demand and lack of consumer confidence. China's export will be inevitably affected by US, which will lead to lower export growth, thereby impact China's economic growth.In order to reduce China's trade dependence on US, to reduce the economic risks brought by China's deep involvement in globalization, on the analysis of China-US trade relations, especially on China's trade dependence ratio to US, this article adopts theoretical and practical application and expatiates the reasons and risks for China's high trade dependence ratio to US and accordingly makes the corresponding policy recommendations.This article includes six parts:foreword, theory summarization of FTD, measure and positive analysis of China's trade dependence ratio to US, cause of China's high trade dependence ratio to US, China's economic Risks brought by the change of China's trade dependence ratio to US, policy recommendations.Part one:Foreword. This part simply introduces the study background, meaning, research results by scholars at home and abroad and the main content of the article.Part two:Theory summarization of FTD. This part includes the correlative basic theories of international trade and the influencing factors.Part three:measure and positive analysis of China's trade dependence ratio to US. This part introduces the development and characters of trade between China and US and the calculation and analysis of China's trade dependence ratio to US. Part four: cause of China's high trade dependence ratio to US. There are eight aspects: China's international trade growth rate is higher than that of China's GDP, influence of the economic globalization, large-scale industrial transfer from American to China, influence of real exchange rate, China's export-led strategy, deficiency of domestic demand, over-large proportion of processing trade, difference in the composing of GDP.Part five:China's economic risks brought by the change of China's trade dependence ratio to US. There are five aspects:aggravating trade friction between China and US, threatening the economic safety, resulting in Chinese enterprises operating risks, enlarging instability and frangibility of the finance, enlarging employment risk.Part six:policy recommendations to China's high trade dependence ratio to US. This part expatiates six stratagems in total:enlarging the domestic demand, developing the serving trade energetically, advancing the transformation and upgrading of processing trade, encouraging foreign direct investment, perfecting the RMB exchange rate forming mechanism.