Study On Hainan Provincial Environmental And Resource CGE Model

After 1960's, when global economy rapidly grows, the problems of lack of natural resource and degradation of ecological environment greatly challenge human beings. While reflecting influence and damage on economic development resulted from a series of problems of global ecological environment, human realize that new strategy of social development should be based on sustainable usage of natural resource, be more concerned about quality of economic growth, harmonize economic development with environmental protection, and achieve sustainable economic development. This dissertation discusses how to build environmental and resource CGE(ERCGE) model with CGE theory and achievement and methods of accounting environment and natural resource value. Further, it simulates, analyzes and quantitatively evaluates potential impacts and effects on Hainan macroeconomy and productive sectors by presuming certain environment policies, which provides scientific reference for environment and natural resource decision-making, and benefits sustainable economic development in Hainan.This dissertation consists of eight chapters, and mainly includes construction of ERCGE model, establishment of Hainan provincial environmental and resource SAM(ERSAM) and simulation analysis of environment and resource policies.ChapterⅠPreface. This chapter briefly presents research background, problems, purpose, methods, approaches, innovation and structure of the whole paper.ChapterⅡSummary of CGE theory. This chapter introduces CGE theory development, basic principles of CGE model, parameters evaluation, implementation of CGE model by software, and application CGE model to the area of environmental and resource economy, which provides theoretic reference for constructing ERCGE model.ChapterⅢConstruction of ERCGE model. It discusses how to integrate environment and natural resource into CGE model, and form basic structure and equations of ERCGE model.ChapterⅣNumerical specification and Calibration of ERCGE model. It establishes ERSAM on the basis of Hainan provincial data, and estimates parameters by ERSAM.ChapterⅤMethods of accounting environment and natural resource value. This chapter introduces and determines the approaches of accounting natural resource value and environmental control cost. In accordance with the methods, it calculates Hainan natural resource price and environmental cost.ChapterⅥEconomic development and environmental and natural resource status in Hainan. It concisely describes economic development, and the environment and resource state in Hainan. ChapterⅦSimulation analysis of environment policies. This chapter analyzes impacts on provincial economy caused by changes of natural resource price and environmental cost according to the presumed simulation scenes. The results of simulation show that consideration of virtual environment cost and resource tax has little impacts on macroeconomy and natural resource input, which reveals that such policies will not lead great economic fluctuation. Because of resource tax, natural resource input will reduce and benefit resource saving and improving efficiency of resource input.ChapterⅧSummary and discussion. It summarizes the content and conclusion of this dissertation, and further proposes assumption of improving the models.