Analysis On Trade Structure Change Of Main Textile And Clothing Exporters In Post-MFA

The quotas of textile and clothing have phased out since January the 1 st 2005 in the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC). It was the sign that textile and clothing would come under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. It has led to a situation of extreme uncertainty among exporters and enterprises worldwide. Each country hopes to gain this chance of developing more markets, and this situation will lead to more drastic competitions among developing countries which are main textile and clothing exporters. Textile industries are very important in our country , and their income is the main origin of GDP. Though it was affected by some adverse factors, it kept persistent increasing. Statistician Yao has pointed out that it will be one of the first five lucrative industries.Free-trade theory, local-balanced theory, comparative predominance theory and center-periphery theory were used in this paper. In post-MFA, market share would mostly be distributed by industry predominance. Through analysis, hypothesis about trade structure change in post-MFA was brought forward. It was supposed that in post-MFA, some quota-imposing exporters would export on a large scale in early days and would finally come back to a normal level.This discourse analysed the fact of textile and clothing trade in the main export courtries such as China, Pakistan, India, Mexico, Korea, Turkey and so on. The reason for research on developing countries is that they were most affected by textile quota restrictions and other developing countries are competitive compared with China. Relative introductions about the main importers and exporters were stated before analytic demonstration.The near data of textile and clothing trade was used to analysis the trade structure. Speed index and ARMA model were used in this discourse in order to analysis the data. On the basis of data analysis, hypothesis brought forward according to the theory analysis was validated, and possible direction of textile and clothing would be forecasted. Through the analysis above, suggestions were brought forward in order to help our country face the new circumstances and promote market shares in the world.