Research On Economic Supervising And Early Warning System Based On Prosperity Index

Economic supervising and early warning carrys on total, comprehensive, overall, systematic analysis and judgement to the whole economical development. It supervises and quantifys a series of indexes, which are reflect economic activity process and actuality, and put forward the alarm to the future possible economic transition and great change based on supervised result, which is the barometer and alarm of economic by utilizing a series of economic indicator. It uses theory analysis method, experience analysis method, statistical analysis method to supervise and appraise business cycle.This paper conbines prosperity index method, early warning signal lamp system and artificial neural network, and explains the clssification, choice, pretreatment method and definite principle of basic date on the basis of theory united practice. Cross correlation, K-L information, regression analysis is used to classify three kind of index. I make use of three methods to calculate the weight of every form index in detail. It also recommends the method of workout diffusion index (DI) and composite index (CI), which is reflect the change degree of index. The early warning index system is established and index critical value is divided. A group of signal lamps are used to reflect the status at every time. At last, we utilize mathematics method to formate the comprehensive index and adopt artificial neural network to predict the economic trend.This paper takes Hubei as an example to research the economic prosperity supervising and early warning system. Based on the reality of Hubei, the author proposes that government should carry out the guilding principle of protecting and pressing conscientiously, even more, strengthen the function of synthesizing and coordinating, increase the effective supply of the department, prevent the economic acceleration rate glides by a large margin in the coming year.