An Empirical Research On How Import Promotes China's Economy Growth

With the rapid development of economy, China has become the powerful trade country, China's total import of goods reached 52809 billion dollars during the "11th five-year plan" period, 1.4 times more than the "tenth-five plan " period .In the five years, import and export had an annual growth of 15.9 percent ,and import had 16.1 percent growth each year. 2009 total import rose to the second in the world, 2010 our import created historic high, total imports reaching to 13948 billion dollars, and have increased 38.7 percent. however ,whether import can increase supply and improve the elements of total factor productivity? Promote the economic growth?This paper firstly summarizes the domestic and foreign scholars views about import and economic growth, and points out that the study existed some shortage ,when considered import technology overflowing in their research, for example they did not put FDI, human capital, domestic independent research and development capacity factors into empirical model. Then, under the imperfect competition marketing structure, according to the new trade theory analysis concludes that the import can promote economic growth, and next I analyse the pathway of import promoting economic growth ,indicating that there are the three pathways: firstly, economic growth can be driven by technological progress, and many factors influence the technological progress ,such as, human capital, the technology spillover of import, independent research and development activities, the advanced technology of direct import, FDI spillover effect, etc; secondly the import increase the production inputs and then promotes economic growth; the last one is that economic growth can be promoted via the industrial structure's optimizing.Secondly, I analyse the present condition from import dependency, import GDP growth elasticity, import goods structure and so on in this paper .Then use the empirical test import which influences economic growth. The first, under the imperfect competition marketing structure, with static model and dynamic model, confirmed our import promoting economic growth, and according to the empirical results also reveals it exist another way that the import promotes economic growth, namely the import first promotes capital accumulation, and then promotes economic growth. The second aspect, this paper stood on the existing research about import trade and economic growth, when researching the path of import promoting economic growth ,I put the FDI, human capital, domestic independent research and development capacity factors into empirical model, it concluded that the spillover effects of import goods, FDI and domestic independent research and development, promotes the technological progress, but considering the human capital and independent research and development activities, the promoting function abate. In addition, while considering import structure of different source, using panel data model confirmed that China import from Germany, the United States and Japan can significantly improve TFP.In view of the main conclusion, this paper put forward some practical and effective policy suggestions.