Study On Interaction Between Economic Growth And Farmland Conversion

With the rapid development of society economy and the swiftly advancing industrialization and urbanization, people's demand of all kinds of construction land is sharply expanding. Farmland conversion is growing larger and larger and the contradiction between people and land has become increasingly prominent. We should develop economic, at the same time we should also protect Cultivated Land. If economic development couldn't get the required supporting of land, it will lead to the rising economy decelerating. If Cultivated Land disorderly or excessively being changed to be non-agricultural construction, we couldn't ensure country's grain supply and it will be also difficult to realize sustainable development of economy. While in the process of economic development, Farmland conversion is inevitable, then how to choose wisely between economic growth and Farmland conversion is critical in economic development of society. This paper takes Hubei Province as an example, researches into the mutual relationship between economic growth and farmland conversion and discusses the countermeasures and suggestions to make harmony relation between them.This article firstly analyses the background of economic growth and farmland conversion. It discusses aim and meaning of the research. Subsequently, a double U-bottomed-up-shaped relationship is found between the economic growth and the farmland conversion. That is, on the one hand, economic growth has powerful economic diving on the demand for farmland conversion. The quantity of farmland conversion increased first and then decreased with increase of economic growth, showing U-bottomed-up-shaped. On the other hand, farmland conversion makes strong contribution to economic growth. And the contribution has certain hysteresis quality. The size of its contribution increased first and then decreased with the time processing. We take Hubei Province as an example on the theoretical analysis, using the data from 1996 to 2005 in Hubei Province. Then establishes metric model of economic growth's effecting on the demand for farmland conversion and model of contribution rate calculation of farmland conversion to economic growth separately. The results indicate that: (1) there were remarkable positive correlation between the economic growth and the farmland conversion. Their Relational Model is Quadratic Curve Model in Hubei Province. Under the assuming trend, the relation between the economic growth and the farmland conversion of the future in Hubei Province can be divided into four stages:①During 2006～2013, namely during the time that nominal quantity of GDP is 0.71～1.37 thousand billion Yuan, there will be a positive correlation between them and farmland conversion will rapidly expand as the economy's growth.②During 2014～2016, namely during the time that nominal quantity of GDP is 1.43～1.79 thousand billion Yuan, there will be a positive correlation between them. The contradiction between developing and eating will begin to come forth and will become more and more serious.③During 2017～2024, namely during the time that nominal quantity of GDP is 1.95～3.51 thousand billion Yuan, there will be a negative correlation between them and the contradiction between developing and eating will alleciate step by step.④After 2024, namely after the time that nominal quantity of GDP reaches 3.51 a thousand billion Yuan, the contradiction between developing and eating will no longer exist and there will actualize harmonious development in social economy. (2) During the year of 1996～2005, farmland conversion had great contribution on economic growth in Hubei Province, the contribution rate was 7.68%, and from the quantitative point of view, the trend of a U-bottomed-up-shaped is verified. The trend indicates the contribution that farmland conversion makes to economic growth. Finally, countermeasure is put forward for Coordination between economic growth and farmland conversion according to theory research and positivism analysis.