The Research Of Financial Crisis Prediction Model Based On Cash Flow And EVA

This thesis researched the financial crisis prediction from the point of view of value creation, regarding the Chinese listed company as the research object, in order to find out the researchful value of cash flow indices and EVA (Economic Value Added) index in the field of financial crisis prediction, and build useful financial crisis prediction models suitable for Chinese market.Firstly, by way of summarizing the current study situation about financial crisis prediction and the deficiencies of current study, the thesis introduced its research intention, content and innovations. After that I gave an all-sided expatiation on the financial crisis theory and the financial crisis prediction theory, including the criterions, characters and causes of financial crisis; then summarized the conception, theoretic basic and functions of financial crisis prediction, and gave an introduction on the qualitative and quantitative methods of financial crisis prediction, especially analyzed different methords of multi-variable pattern such as MDA, Logistic model and NN.Secondly, I expatiated on the core indices of this thesis-EVA and cash flow, surrounding the value creation, introduced the calculational methord and functions of EVA and cash flow. Considering EVA is the genuine profit of a corporation taking out the cost of equity capital, and reflects the created value of a corporation more veracious in each accounting period, I managed to introduce EVA into financial crisis prediction index system. In view of cash flow is the precondiction of value creation and more authentic than indices accounting on the accrual basis, I decided to build a financial crisis prediction model based on cash flow indices.Finally, according to the actual situation of capital market in our country, this thesis chose 45 financial crisis companies that is with special treatment (ST) for the first time in 2004 and 2005, and 45 paired non-financial crisis companies as estimate sample. Then I utilized the financial data in the accounting statement that the listed company has already been audited, structure three financial crisis prediction models each on the basis of accounting ratio, cash flow indices and EVA ratio by multi-logistic regression methodology, and contrasted the three models'determinate results and forecast veracities to test sample. The result showed that the cash flow and EVA contain prediction value that is not included in the accounting ratio; therefore the models based on cash flow indices and EVA ratio are reasonable and effective.Futhermore, there were innovations to some extent in the principle of researching sample choose, the index variable filtration, financial crisis prediction leading and the model construction course, etc. The third model based on EVA ratio has stronger predicted ability than any other congeneric research in our country.