Based On Cash Flow Of Listed Companies Of The Financial Crisis Prediction

Cash is the basis of business survival, with only enough cash, the companies will be able to survival, development and profit. Now some of the enterprises there is a "the report form profit, in the account does not have the money". In severe cases, they will be "earnings but bankruptcy" phenomenon. Cash is the business of "blood", whether the blood flow is smooth and the quality of the blood is good determines a company's vitality. So, the existence of certain corporate financial risks, does not depend on how much profit, but rather depends on there do not have enough cash and the specie payment ability which adapts with its management scale. This paper attempts to draw on previous research methods, utilizes Chinese capital market's data, analysis from another point of view- cash flow index system to analyze the financial characteristics and differences between Distress Companies and whether Distress Companies; from another path to explore - in cash Flow of financial crisis forecasting model to predict corporate financial crisis. For the theory and practice to provide another line of thought and research methods.The paper use cash flow indicator system to predict the financial crisis of the listed companies on the base of relevant overview of research at home and abroad, using combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis methods. This article is made up of five main parts. Firstly it gives a brief introduction of aim and meaning of the research, relevant overview, at home and abroad and contents and methods. Secondly, it is given on basic theories of using cash flow indicator system to predict the financial crisis of the listed companies to the correlation concepts. Next to analyze to cash flow financial early-warning reason of positive research, choice method and financial early-warning index of cash flow to probe into real example sample screen the route. And then establish the financial early-warning model of the cash flow of the structure. To cash flow financial early-warning real example application of method, paper adopt single variable analyze and changeable quantity analyze method, changeable quantity analyze, adopt Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) method return to(Logistic)method with plural logic among them. Lastly, draws the conclusion in empirical analysis's foundation, and has pointed out the article deficiency.Based on cash flow targets for listed companies of the financial crisis forecast empirical study, we concluded that: The financial distress is predictable, the nearer before the distress, the higher the accuracy of the forecast; ST Company with whether ST Company the prominent difference stores in from cash flow; Cash flow changeable quantity early-warning result of model superior to cash flow form variable early-waming result of model; Make class II and wrong probability and is greater than making by a kind of wrong probability in financial early-warning model of the cash flow, according to this respect, reveal that the advantage of the gold flow index at the time of predicting the financial predicament appears, here, the thesis thinks and judges whether it is that a standard of ST Company can be only according to the profit of the company and face amount of net assets per share or not, must join the cash flow index, so on one hand can improve the accuracy judged, on the other hand it inhibit profit of listed company from handle the behavior.