Crisis Analysis Of Urbanization In Harbin Based On Grey Prediction

There are three developing trend in the 21st urbanization, information and globalization. Cities become the main power of the society economics activities, and decide the process of society developing. So the officer of United Nations Environment Programme said that succeed in cities is meaning succeed in nations. It's very useful to study the problem of urbanization process, because the urbanization is the standard of 21st, urbanization of China, as the most population developing country of the world will effect all over the worth in the future 20 years.As a big city of 94 million populations in China, Harbin is developing urbanization to improve citizens' life. However, over urbanization is a key impediment and it's sure to happen according to city developing procedure. From this meaning, over urbanization is a crisis of city development. So, detecting hidden crisis is the main goal of this paper. As Grey Disaster Changing prediction, one of grey predictions, can predict when the next crisis will happen and have high precision, it is selected here to predict when over urbanization will occur for Chinese government to consider about how to prevent or take measures. Taking last 11 years data about industrialization level and industrialization situation in Harbin, the crisis of urbanization process is predicted. The predicting result is over urbanization will appear in the next 3rd years.To solute the preview result of Harbin urbanization crisis, it should take some useful measures. The first is that economics which makes progress become the main power of urbanization to take the speed of industrialization and urbanization in the sort step. The second is to take ecological urbanization, which sets metropolis to solute the, make progress of the country urbanization to reduce the tlirust of urbanization and the government should make policy to guide and lead the city development. The last is to set a government city crisis management system, which is basic on the crisis management system. It includes crisis forecast ion which takes real-time monitoring before crisis happens and crisis response system which take some effective measures to reduce the loss and repercussion taken by urbanization crisis.