A System-dynamics-based, Simulating Analysis Of Enterprise Logistics Outsourcing Decision Model

As a vinculum between manufacture and consumption, logistics run through the whole course of manufacture and management, and would be the third profit sources after controlling the material expenses and improving the labor productivity. The logistics outsourcing strategy fulfill the logistical function by dint of the professional resource outside, and it can improve the competition advantage greatly. So it seems that logistics outsourcing should have been developed widely in China, but it does not. Above all, the proportion of the enterprises, which carry on the logistics outsourcing strategy, is not high enough. What is more, in the enterprises which carry on the logistics outsourcing, the outsourcing items are usually the cheap and simple ones. The current situation of logistic outsourcing in China has been blocking healthy development of enterprise logistic and the third party logistic. Under this background,we consider it necessary to research into the outsourcing of logistics and discuss the issues about how to choose accurate logistic outsourcing plan according to enterprise current situation and developing stratagem,so as to perfect the management system of outsourcing of logistics and put forward the reference for corporation in china,making them ahead of the competition of globalization.Aiming at resolve the problems mentioned above, following is the tasks made by this paper: Firstly, research background and significance have been analyzed, and studies at home and abroad have enlightened modeling and simulating research in this paper. The current situation, characters, baffling factors and typical strategy of logistic outsourcing have been given, and a analyzed framework of logistic outsourcing has been advanced. Secondly, the capital causes of selecting system dynamics method and using the Stella software to carrying out this study have been expounded. Thirdly, by analyzing the relationship between logistics outsourcing policy and enterprises' current situation which interact with each other and finally influence enterprises'long-term profit, a logistics outsourcing unified decision model based on System Dynamics, has been designed in this paper, and the model's validity has been tested. This model, which shows features of nonlinearity and dynamics, quantificationally decides multistage partial logistics outsourcing plan in environment of enterprise current situation and development strategies. According to results of coupled simulation and scenario analysis of logistics outsourcing and the development strategy in enterprise, each development strategy, which has its own advantages and disadvantages, influences enterprises'long-term profit through logistics outsourcing policy, so enterprises should choose appropriate development strategy to optimize their logistics outsourcing and achieve maximization of long-term profit according their current situation. Finally, the full texts in this paper have been summered up and come to a conclusion.