Research On Correlation Of Price And Trade Fluctuation Of Cotton Market In China After Entering WTO

Through the revolution of cotton circulating mechanism and examination of WTO rules, the cotton market of China has entered Market Economy period. Under the current regulation, the cotton price and import both exist obvious fluctuation, and they has some kinds of correlativity between them.In order to research the correlation, this article analysis the differences in the price and trade fluctuation before and after entering WTO, and discusses some new factors which may lead to the fluctuation after entering WTO, use causality test to adjust the relation between cotton price and import, and consider their influence and mechanism. According to this discussion, the author makes a model to explain the cause of the fluctuation and the way it spreads. This article contains five parts as below:The 1^st part contains Chapter 1, clarifies the backgrounds, objectives and significance of research, introduces the research survey in and abroad, and then explains the technical way and possible innovation and shortage.The 2^nd part contains Chapter 2 and 3, generally narrates the characteristics of the cotton price and trade fluctuation before and after entering WTO, expounds that Chinese cotton market have transferred from planned economy to market economy and there exists some new specialties and rules after entering WTO.The 3^rd part contains Chapter 4, constructs the Supply Curse and Demand Curse of import, and then uses the Spider-Wed Model to discuss the cause of the fluctuation. It shows that the fluctuation of cotton price and import have some specialties. When the international price rises, the domestic price and import fluctuate to adjust to the new balance point though longer periods.The 4^th part contains Chapter 5, uses Granger Causality Test to search for the causality of the three variables: domestic price, international price and import. And then, it uses the Unit-Pulse Response Function to estimate the strength and lasting time of the fluctuation. According to the former logical frame, it establishes a Polynomial Distributed Lags Model to formulate the influence process among these variables. The 5^th part contains Chapter 6, summarizes the former discussions and gives some political advices. To reduce the risk of price and import fluctuation, the government has to deepen the revolution in market mechanism and enhance the risk management.