Analysis On Influencing Factors Of Cotton Market Price Fluctuation In Hebei Province

As an extremely important part of agricultural production,cotton has played an indispensable role in promoting China's economic growth.Although cotton planting in Xinjiang occupies an absolute position in the whole country,it still faces some objective and uncontrollable factors that lead to the damage of cotton planting in Xinjiang.The uneven distribution of cotton planting areas will make the cotton industry in the whole country face risks.Therefore,Hebei Province,as an important supplementary part of China's cotton industry layout,still plays an important role.However,in recent years,the promotion and application of mechanization,informatization,intellectualization and social service in the development of cotton industry in Hebei Province are inadequate,and the rising labor cost of cotton planting causes abnormal price fluctuation in the cotton market.Traditional cotton planting and marketing methods for cotton farmers to bring about a shrinking space for economic benefits,cotton planting costs and returns fluctuate greatly.Because of the close combination of cotton industry chain in Hebei Province,cotton farmers are the first ones to be impacted by the fluctuation of cotton price.Therefore,stabilizing cotton market price,safeguarding the development of cotton industry and safeguarding the fundamental interests of cotton farmers are particularly critical.This paper mainly studies the influencing factors of cotton market price fluctuation in Hebei Province.Firstly,the current situation of cotton market in Hebei Province is analyzed from four aspects: production,processing,circulation and international trade.There are many varieties of cotton in Hebei Province,the area and yield of cotton planting are reduced,and mechanization is not widely used;the cost and cost of cotton planting are increased,and the benefit of cotton planting is reduced;the unbalanced supply and demand in the cotton textile market often occur;the fierce competition between China and the United States in trade Wars results in a severe situation of cotton import and export trade in China.Secondly,the fluctuation characteristics of cotton market price in Hebei Province are analyzed from two aspects: fluctuation range and fluctuation cycle.The seasonal,cyclical and trend fluctuations of cotton market prices in Hebei Province from 2008 to 2018 were analyzed by using HP filter analysis method.The results show that the seasonal fluctuation of cotton market price is relatively large,which is closely related to cotton sowing and harvesting season;the cyclical fluctuation is not obvious,but it will be affected by the internal development law of cotton industry and the cyclical fluctuation of seed cotton,lint and textile prices;the fluctuation trend of cotton market price has improved in recent years,and the market price has risen.Then according to the cotton market situation and market price fluctuation in Hebei Province,the influencing factors are selected and classified from four aspects: production scale,cost-benefit,market supply and demand,and international trade.Based on 475 valid questionnaires,the Logit model is constructed to integrate the indicators of influencing factors.The empirical analysis of the model data is completed through the statistics of 4 basic positioning variables and 19 explanatory variables.Finally,according to the results of empirical analysis,this paper puts forward the countermeasures to alleviate the fluctuation of cotton market price in Hebei Province from four aspects: regional co-ordination of cotton planting,extension of production technology,market information service and national trade policy.One is to optimize the regional layout of cotton planting by means of cotton protection zones;the other is to strengthen the promotion of cotton planting technology and reduce the cost of cotton planting;the third is to improve the information service and feedback mechanism of cotton market;and the fourth is to implement national policies and treat trade wars correctly.This paper analyses the price fluctuation of cotton market in Hebei Province,grasps the price fluctuation trend according to the change of influencing factors of price fluctuation,which can alleviate the risk brought by price fluctuation of cotton market in Hebei Province and protect the interests of all parties in the cotton industry chain.The innovation of this paper is to analyze the seasonal,cyclical and trend fluctuation of cotton market price in Hebei Province from 2008 to 2018 by using HP filter analysis method.The influencing factors of cotton market price fluctuation in Hebei Province are analyzed by using Logit model,and the international market analysis related to Sino-US trade war is added.