The Application Of Multi-level Gray Evaluation Method In The Loan Risk Assessment For Port Construction Project

In recent years, the carrying capacity of Chinese ports gradually cannot satisfy the economical development with the expansion of trade globalization. Under this circumstance, the port construction projects present a notable trend of great increase, and therefore a large amount of capital is needed simultaneously. Even though China has come forth many financing channel for ports projects, the loan, as a steady capital source, is indispensable. The precondition for Chinese large-scale port construction is to guarantee the continuous increase of the supply of goods. However, so far as it goes, the trend that the supply of goods has decreased gradually emerges. It indicates that the foregone forecast of goods is excessively optimism, and great risk may lie in the leading construction of port. Therefore, the risk assessment of the loan to the port construction projects is necessary and urgent.This paper does some research on the financing theory, risk theory and risk assessment method. In view of the characteristics of port construction projects, improved multi-level gray evaluation method, with the advantages of less data, simplicity, and less human factors, is proposed here to assess the loan risk of port construction projects. First of all, this paper treats some financial indexes as quantitative indexes, some ones that cannot be calculated as qualitative indexes. The combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis as well as subjectivity and objectivity embodies the whole index system. Second, in the filtering process of indexes, the conditional generalized variance method is applied to eliminate some quantitative indexes with poor independence. Third, when determining the judgment matrix, the 10/10-18/2 scale method is adopted. Fourth, this paper makes use of ordinal consistency inspection to test the coherence of the judgment matrix, and improves the original basic consistency by changing the judgment matrix to avoid the inspection of it. In the end, the paper presents a case study of Shanghai Port and Jinzhou Port with multi-level gray evaluation method, and compares the degree of loan risk. Therefore, it is proved that the multi-level gray evaluation method is feasible and fit to the loan risk assessment of port construction projects.