| The production increase potential of grain in China and the future tendency of grain Supply-Demand relations have caused widespread concern among native and international theoretical researchers as well as policy makers. On the one hand, the trend of industrialization and urbanization will increase the demand for grain, on the other hand will decrease cultivated land and water resource, therefore increase the difficulty in the supply of grain. To stop the decrease of production increase potential of grain and increase the production increase potential of grain has become the rational choice for our grain development strategy at the beginning of new century. Based on the results of cultivated land classification, the integrated productive capacity of cultivated land is calculated. Then the key cultivated land regions and the priority land consolidation regions are divided, which is of great significance to ensure national food security and promote economic and social sustainable development.Based on the database in cultivated land classification of hebei, in order to evaluate the of cultivated land at different levels and to make clear the distribution of the comprehensive productivity, this paper builds up the system of the comprehensive productivity of cultivated land, including theoretical productivity,the accessible productivity,the current productivity and actual crop production, and then points out relevant calculation models, Then the key cultivated land regions and the priority land consolidation regions are divided. The results are as follows:(1)Based on the database of the comprehensive productivity of cultivated land, this paper evaluates the comprehensive productivity of cultivated land and analyses its spatial distribution. In 2004, the theoretical productivity of cultivated land in hebei is 8.00×1010kg, the accessible productivity is 5.20×1010kg, and the actual crop production is 3.61×1010kg. The average theoretical productivity of cultivated land is 1.27×104kg/hm2 and the average potential yield is 1.27×104kg/hm2, which indicate that food security of cultivated land in hebei is at a higher level.(2) Based on the analysis of the comprehensive productivity, combing with the potential productivity,the input and output of cultivated land, the cultivated land of 140 counties in Hebei Province is divided into four protective levels. As the national-level protected areas, its comprehensive evaluation score is 0.45～0.68 and its area is 2.02×106 hm2 , which accounted for 32.1% the total area. The comprehensive evaluation scores of provincial-level protected area is 0.35～0.45 and its area is 2.98×106 hm2. The comprehensive evaluation score of third-level is 0.20 to 0.35, which accounted for 30.1% the total cultivated land in hebei. The rest is classified as the fourth-level, its evaluation score is 0～0.20, which accounted for 9.7% the total cultivated land in hebei. By the division of productive regions and the definition of the protective duties of different subjects, It has great realistic meanings to stabilizing agricultural production and to ensure food security.(3) By the analysis of the cultivated land use intensity,utilizing Potentiality and socio-economic assessment, the land consolidation regions in hebei are divided into four divisions. The score of the first -grade regions is between 0.60 and 0.80. Its area is 1.84×106 hm2, the theoretical utilization potentiality of cultivated land is 1.05×1010kg and the accessible utilization potentiality of cultivated is 2.47×109kg. The second-grade regions are 2.53×106 hm2 , whose scores between 0.20 and 0.40 are divided into the third-grade. Its area is 1.20×106 hm2 , which dispersed in more distribution and the theoretical utilization potentiality and accessible utilization potentiality of cultivated is 3.63×109kg and 9.13×108kg, respectively. The other cultivated land is classified as the four the-grade regions, the score of which is below 0.20. The potential yield increase of these regions is low and the consolidation priorities of these regions are the lowest. In addition to the coastal plain area, the 7.19×105 hm2 which classified as this region is dispersed in other 7 regions (the second-grade index regions). Through the consolidation scheduling of cultivated land, it provides scientific basis for land consolidation planning, the setting of land consolidation project and the implementation of Land consolidation. |
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