The Research Of Construction And Decision Support Of The Cities' Unemployment Early Warning System

The unemployment is a significant problem and all over the world always cause serious concern on it. How to dynamically control the situation of unemployment, the interconnection of economic development and the unemployment is becoming an urgent solution based on the scientific decision. Ushered information management, constructed the management of information system of unemployment in our cities and country turn into the vital task in the next few years. In these giant and complex MIS, it absolutely plays a fundamental role by applied Early-Warning theory, integrated computer science and postmodern mathematics to establish a high efficient, intuitional, scientific and dynamic early warning system for unemployment. The research of this system is continued to grow vigorously. But the construction of the theory and the practical application are still in the incessant process of exploration and research.The achievement of this thesis:(1) Used the structured approach of application system on the preliminary plan, analysis and design. Gave the overall frame and module structure, including the unemployment information collecting module, data preliminary module, unemployment forecast module, unemployment early-warning module and expert consulting module. Then analyzed and designed the function of every module.(2) Established the system to evaluate unemployment Early-Warning with the data came from Chengdu. With the method of multiple linear regression, the thesis analyzed the relativity of twenty indicators from the primary election by unemployment early-warning system and selected ten high related indicators to established the system of unemployment early-warning system.(3) Established the unemployment rate forecast module. The thesis used the method of BP neural networks to establish the unemployment early-warning module and anticipate the unemployment rate.The unemployment early-warning system which established by quantitative analysis forecasted the future unemployment fluctuation. For the further step it can form the policy and take the corresponding measures to get ready for rainy days and avoid the injury in economic development and social stability.