The Total Economic Evaluation And The Risk Analysis On The Continuation Project Of LengJia River Reservoir

Since the reform and opening-up of our country , Construction of water conservancy has experienced high-speed development and has been the pillar industry of our national economy . It has also given impetus to our national economy and resulted in the continuous and high speed development. Construction of water conservancy is characterized by capital intensity, high risk and high return . Economic evaluation and risk analyzing have critic impact on the success of construction of water conservancy project development. Of course, there are some construction of water conservancy agents who have applied economic evaluation but lack the knowledge of project risk in water conservancy. This has led to water conservancy investment can't bring expected profits.The paper has calculated relevant financial indices. The Economic Internal Rate of Return(EIRR) is 7.37%, which is higher than the standard rate 7%. The ENPV is 2.3996 million, which is above zero. It proves a good finacial results. Every year the project will get income 0.1968 million by irrigating, which can maintain the ordinary running expenses of 0.1948 million. So, the project is feasible in finance. At the same time, combining the project risk management theories and the situations, the paper thoroughly analyzed LengJia River Reservoir for its market risk, finance risk and operating management risk. The project can resist risk in a certain extent. And this paper includes three parts.1. The financial analysis of the planing project has been accurately finished by using dynamical analysis as the main method and using vertical analysis as the method to assist. Based on the forecasting data of the practical plan, the paper has estimated the financial index evaluation of the project's financial expenses, total cost, financial income and Scot etc. in detail and has compiled the basal financial reporting and the assisting financial reporting in point to have the relatively satisfied analyzing result.2. The national economic evaluation of the planing project has been completed by adopting shadow price, according to the principle of resources' reasonable configuration from the whole of our country angles. Following "The Specification of Water Conservancy Construction's Economic Evaluation", The paper has computed the general national economy's evaluating indicator of the project's increment cost , increment benefit, etc. and has compiled the relatively satisfied evaluating result of the rational economic evaluation of a project's national economy combining the project's practical situation. This water conservancy project is reasonable financially, the national economic evaluation is reasonable and feasible.3. The ability against the risk of the planing project has been analyzed by using the specialistic survey procedure and the probabilistic method of risk. A majority of parameter in the planing project's economic evaluation is gaining through forecaster and estimation, inevitably existing some unsure factors. This will make a certain influence to the risk analytical study of evaluating result. According to the general process of risk recognition, risk reckon and risk evaluation, the paper has obtained the relatively satisfied analyzing result through the sensitivity analysis and the probability analysis on the project. This project is assumed minor risk and has strong ability against the risk.