Study On The Fluctuation Of Farmland Productivity In Hebei

Food is god to the people who is national basis. Food for humans, whether individual or as a whole, is an indispensable conditions. It is the foundation of national development and social stability, the core problem of national agricultural and economic policy. Solving the grain problem is the basic objective to the social and economic development. In the new historical conditions and development environment, we have been discussing the connotation of grain problem can not be simply used increasing to sum up. Fluctuation of food production increase, associated with the regional and crop species changes is becoming the important connotation characteristic of food problem and with the passage of time these new features is becoming increasingly clear and conspicuous. Therefore, scientific analysis of fluctuations of farmland productivity changes, searching for the main causes what impact on farmland productivity instability and analysis of the dominant factor is particularly important.Based on the previous study of farmland productivity and food volatility and the rational core of grain yield fluctuation study, we constructed the analytical framework of farmland productivity; use the method of variance decomposition to analysis of the structure characteristic of farmland productivity in Hebei province; use Grey Correlation Analysis associated with comparative judgment matrix to analysis the controlling factors of farmland productivity fluctuation, the main researching conclusion as follows:(1)EMD method is applied to farmland productivity fluctuation characteristics, the coefficient of variation applied to spatial variability research of farmland productivity fluctuation, variance decomposition method applied to structural characteristics of farmland productivity fluctuation, Grey Correlation Analysis Compared with comparative judgment matrix applied to controlling factor analysis of farmland productivity, results show that these methods can provide good support for the research of farmland productivity fluctuation, analysis can accurately reflect the nature law of farmland productivity fluctuation.(2)This article had comprehensive analysis the temporal-spatial variability Characteristics of farmland productivity fluctuation in Hebei province. Fluctuations of grain output in Hebei Province has obvious time-scale characteristics of the changes into 3-6-10year three-scale features of the cyclical, 6-year fluctuations in grain output is an important feature of fluctuation during this period. There is obvious differences fluctuation between of different district of Hebei province. In the northwest area, the fluctuation of farmland productivity is greatest strength. The farmland productivity fluctuation is generally smaller in the central cities that Shijiazhuang and Baoding. The fluctuation of Hebei plain has overall strength of smaller and significant difference that compared to other mountainous plateau and hilly areas. The total area of nearly 90 percent of the region's grain output fluctuation coefficient of variation distributed in 0 to 0.35. Farmland productivity fluctuation is generally moderate in Hebei province, the fluctuation region is mainly in the north and coastal areas of Hebei.(3)Based on the analysis of structural characteristics of farmland productivity in different area and crop types, this article explored the impact of farmland productivity fluctuation component to the overall fluctuation. Jiluyu low-lying plains and Yanshan-Taihang Mountains approached plains has enhance effect of same fluctuation direction. And this effect is the main source to enhance the fluctuation intensity. Wheat production fluctuation and other food crops have complementary effect of different fluctuation direction which plays positive impact to grain yield production in Hebei province. Between the fluctuation components of farmland productivity, there is enhance effect of same fluctuation direction and complementary effect of different fluctuation direction. These two effects have important impact to farmland productivity fluctuation. Enhance effect of same fluctuation direction is the main source to enhance the fluctuation intensity.(4)This article analyze the main controlling factor of farmland productivity fluctuation, the result showed that the main controlling factor was inundated area , effective irrigation area, grain planting area, agricultural expenditure, rainfall, fertilizer input. The fluctuation changes of natural resources, fixed assets investment and variable factor input is the main reason for farmland productivity fluctuations in Hebei Province that provide a scientific reference to solve the problem of stable development of farmland productivity.