The Research On The Problem Of The Appreciation Of RMB

On July 21,2005,the People's Bank of China has released《the announcement on perfecting the exchange rate of RMB and forming mechanism reform of the People's Bank of China》(Announcement of the People's Bank of China﹝2005﹞No. 16),propose clearly it has floating exchange rate system of management that our country begins to be based on market supply and demand,and consults a basket of currency. The exchange rate of RMB no longer pegs to single U.S. dollar,forming RMB exchange rate mechanism full of more elasticity. It indicates exchange rate system of RMB enters a new stage. Today after pursuing the system of new exchange rate for 33 months,our country still keeps surging pairs of favorable balance,therefore the huge foreign exchange reserve formed is suffered enormous losses by the influence that U.S. dollar devalues, CPI grows at top speed,the inflation situation has not changed, all these deviate from original intention appreciating to some extent. And the situation of rising appears under the internal and external pressure in RMB exchange rate,in the course of appreciating,domestic small and medium-sized enterprises have suffered enormous losses. This research regards analyzing and explaining the appreciation pressure of RMB as the goal,along the theory�'Reality�'Real example thinking of practice,and regard studying in international trade as the foundation using the principles of finance,statistics,econometrics,industry's economics synthetically,and take standardize research,statistical analysis, positive research, relatively study the research approach to start the research about it.Through the analysis of domestic overall trade situation,it gets in touch to find out the logic among appreciation pressure of RMB and exchange rate system,and trade state in this research,through counting the data analysis in a large amount,and it prove that has taken processing trade as the core for many years.The extensive trade development model that increased has appreciated for RMB and brought the enormous pressure,meanwhile,pointing out through the analysis to the system of exchange rate of our country and foreign exchange control system,and put emphasis on China and RMB appreciation range insufficient view ignore our country in U.S. dollar of pegging to under the system.The reality that the exchange rate appreciates with appreciation of U.S. dollar in the past too. I think it is moderately prudent that RMB of our country appreciate. This article uses uses the ADF unit root test and the two-step method Engle-Granger co-integration analysis to choose the fundamentals economic variables which impact the RMB exchange rate, selects the year data's about 1980-2006 to do empirical Analysis, and structures the equilibrium exchange rate model which suited to China. On this basis, it uses H-P filter method to estimate the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB. This article also conducts calculations and analysis on the imbalance in the RMB exchange rate since the 1980s, and tells whether the RMB exchange rate is undervalued or not, and the degree of imbalance. Finally, judge whether the RMB exchange rates is reasonable, and study the impact of exchange rate movements on China's economic development as well.This research is in the revenue and expenditure model of trade ( 2007)Basic,and choose the quarters of 2002-2008 years data to carrying on real example analysis between the change and trade state of exchange rate of RMB. the positive research indicates,the appreciation of the exchange rate of RMB displays J curve effect,such reasons as just more complicatedly with the international economic environment make J curve result not remarkable enough. However,in a situation that our country's export spurs economic growth,must take measures to alleviate the appreciation pressure of RMB,in order to reducing the influence of domestic export trade more,take precautions against it to the economic shock.Real standard of the exchange rate of RMB,receive the influence in such a great deal of factors as economic basic side,industrial structure,trade structure,etc.In the special period for economic transition of socialist market in China,emphasizing excessively the exchange rate appreciates and certainly will have a unfavorable impact on economy.The article is from optimizing the structure of industry finally,the angle of coordinating the trade structure,reducing the trade friction,optimizing the foreign exchange control system etc.And put forward the policy recommendations which relaxes the appreciation pressure of RMB pointedly.