Study On Predicting The Quantity Of Construction Land Demand In Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

The general land use plan which is the emphase in the management of land use can make the total supply and demand of land harmonious and set down the macroscopical stratagem of the structure and arrangement of land use.With the new general land use plan compiling, the conflict about supply and demand of land resource has come to broad attention. So, in the light of the continuable scientific development that is brought forward by central committee of CPC, the new general land use plan should institute the direction ideas and the comprehensive goals and pay more attention to the research and exertion of the scientific methods. This article is on the base of practice subject,《The Study of Optimize the Land Use Structure and Arrangement In Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region》. The prediction of the quantity of construction land is studied to afford the guidelines for construction land.It utilizes the data of the social and economic Stat. information of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 1997 to 2005, and analyses the status quo , the developing direction and the influential factors of construction land with some methods, such as linear regression analysis, pertinency analysis. After analysis and evaluation to the prediction methods of construction land, the system"noises"is eliminated and fit the prediction of the long-term, medium-term and short-term. Furthermore, the residual error can be amended to advance the precision of mathematical model GM(l, 1).The mathematical model GM(l, 1) is used in the paper to predict the the quantity of construction land demand. To enhance the practicability and objectivity, on the base of the quantitative analysis , the factors about the increasing drives of the quantity of construction land are analyzed to amend the outcomes by the methods which analyze urban land-use, town land-use, and unattached factory diggings land-use, traffic land-use and water conservancy land-use.In term of the characteristics of the actuality and the development , the land-use of country residential areas is predicted by New Increasing Build in Demand,the result is consistent with the conclusion,"along with the course of urbanization and the implement of urban planning, more and more country residential areas would change into city land-use and the amount should descend."As a result, the quantity of the prediction of construction land is 1,321,212.82 ha. in 2010, 1,388,632.93 ha. in 2015, 1,437,606.11 ha. in 2020. And 2006-2010 year increase is 58657.67ha, 2010-2015 year increase is 67420.11 ha, 2015-2020 year increase is 48973.18 ha. It can respond the trend of land use demand in the future and can be regarded as a reference to predict the the quantity of the construction land in this planning.